Saturday, February 20, 2010
Pagi ni bermain2 dibenak saya adakah CPO akan naik walaupun beberapa F.A indikator menunjukkan ramalan positif & negatif. Malam tadi harga NYMEX CRUDE OIL MAR 2010 telah naik mencecah paras 80/bbl, manakala harga CBOT SOYOIL MAR 2010 mengalami kejatuhan ke paras 38.52. Dollar pula mengukuh berbanding ringgit....
F.A indikator manakah yang lebih dominan mempengaruhi turun naik harga FCPO? Atau ada sesuatu disebalik urusniaga pasaran hadapan FCPO ini?
Tetapi saya berpendapat walauapapun F.A menunjukkan pelbagai petunjuk pasaran CPO samada naik atau turun, yang penting T.A tidak pernah menipu kita. Cuma bile kita perlu masuk position and keluar position.
Kepada para traders yang mempunyai pengalaman, sila beri pendapat anda untuk dikongsi bersama......
Selamat berhujung minggu.......
At 5pm, the ringgit was at 3.4120/4150 compared with Thursday close of 3.4000/4030.
The dealer said the recent unexpected move by the US Federal Reserve to lift interest rates for emergency loans buoyed demand for the greenback and made riskier currencies less attractive.
"People were reluctant to take heavy positions amid the weakness in local and regional stock markets," the dealer said.
The local currency also traded lower against the Singapore dollar at 2.4103/4146 from 2.4093/4136 on Thursday.
However, it rose against the Japanese yen to 3.7176/7233 from 3.7396/7433, the British pound to 5.2538/2591 from 5.3088/3145 and the euro to 4.6038/6096 from 4.6101/6148.
SHORT-TERM interbank rates closed steady yesterday as Bank Negara Malaysia actively intervened, issuing several money market tenders to keep in check excess liquidity in the system, dealers said.
The overnight rate was quoted at 2.0 per cent, while the one-week, two-week and three-week rates hovered around 2.02 and 2.05 per cent.
Bank Negara this morning carried out five conventional tenders, three Al-Wadiah tenders, a repo tender as well as a Commodity Murabahah Programme tender to offset the liquidity surplus.
As a result, the excess in the conventional system was eased to RM25.01 billion from RM34.74 billion estimated earlier, while the surplus in the Islamic system reduced to RM6.99 billion from RM8.78 billion.
In late trading yesterday, the central bank also called tenders to borrow RM25 billion from the conventional operations and another RM5.2 billion from the Islamic funds, both of three-day money.
THE three-month Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate (KLIBOR) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower yesterday.
The March 2010 contract declined 19 ticks to 97.58 with nine lots traded.
At 11am fixing, the underlying three-month KLIBOR was at 2.24 per cent. Meanwhile, the five-year Malaysian Government Securities futures closed untraded. - Bernama
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Friday after the U.S Federal Reserve's decision to raise its discount rate pushed the dollar higher.
But commodity prices in Asia, including palm oil, are still vulnerable to further declines next week, when volume is expected to pick up, trade participants said.
The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR4 lower at MYR2,596 a metric ton, with 11,910 lots traded, well below average volume on the BMD of 14,000-16,000 lots.
"The move by the Fed may lead to temporary selling pressure on the BMD in the next trading session," said a trading executive from Jakarta. "CPO futures may ease to around MYR2,500-MYR2,550 next week, when the Chinese traders return after a long break."
Crude oil and soyoil futures remained in negative territory in Asian trade, preventing a sustained rise in palm oil prices, which briefly spiked above the MYR2,600 psychological level to an intraday high of MYR2,609/ton.
Light, sweet crude oil for March delivery reached an intraday high of $79.29 Thursday, buoyed by U.S. inventory data that showed distillate stocks fell more than expected, but then tumbled to below $78 a barrel during Asian trading.
March soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 29 points lower at 38.41 cents a pound by the end of trade on the BMD.
Palm oil futures held above MYR2,550 despite a sharp fall in other commodities because "supply-demand fundamentals are still rather supportive," a Singapore-based trading executive said.
"Output in February and March is expected to fall, and this may reduce Malaysia's palm oil inventories, which is bullish for palm prices," he said.
Palm oil output in January declined 13% to 1.32 million tons, the lowest level in nine months, trimming palm inventories to 2.0 million tons from 2.24 million tons in December, based on recent data from the government-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board.
In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June delivery traded at $790/ton, $792.50/ton and $795/ton a Singapore-based trader said.
Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered at MYR2,610/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 77,109 lots Friday, down from 81,347 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
Closing BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT:
Month Close Previous Change High Low
Mar 2010 2,610 2,611 Down 01 2,610 2,585
Apr 2010 2,599 2,604 Down 05 2,610 2,580
May 2010 2,596 2,600 Down 04 2,609 2,577
Jun 2010 2,590 2,600 Down 10 2,598 2,571
Friday, February 19, 2010
Pada pagi ini dijangkakan FCPO dibuka lebih tinggi berbanding semalam berikutan kenaikan harga MARCH 2010 NYMEX crude oil mencecah 79.06/bbl. Walaubagaimanapun harga MARCH 2010 CBOT soybean oil mengalami sedikit penurunan ditutup pada 38.70. Sila berhati-hati pada sebarang kemungkinan reversal dan keluar pasaran dengan segera jika telah disahkan melalui T.A.
AFTERNOON UPDATE - 12:40 19.02.2010
Kejatuhan harga pembukaan FCPO yang tidak disangka2 telah berlaku pagi tadi.....setelah saya membuat sedikit analisis kenapa berlaku demikian, didapati harga CBOT SOYOIL telah jatuh mendadak kepada 38.29 mata dalam jam 9.00pg tadi. Kemungkinan inilah salah satu puncanya. Melalui analisis teknikal (TA), didapati harga FCPO semakin turun dan saya telah close position dengan kerugian rm575.
Lesson learnt - (1) Jangan tamak
(2) Trade dengan penuh disiplin
Berdasarkan F.A sehingga jam 12:firstname.lastname@example.org, didapati harga NYMEX crude oil naik mencecah 78/bbl. Manakala CBOT soybean oil turut mengekori kenaikan minyak menjadi 38.84. Oleh itu para trader disaran mengekalkan LONG POSITION untuk hari Jumaat 19.2.2010
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange weakened Thursday to close at a key support level as declines in crude oil and soyoil futures weighed on sentiment, trade participants said.
Still, traders said a sustained break below the immediate support isn’t likely this week as market participants are reluctant to make big bets with many investors sidelined during the week-long holiday in China.
The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR28 lower at MYR2,600 a metric ton, a crucial psychological support level, after trading in a narrow range of MYR2,600-MYR2,617.
The Chinese are the biggest buyers of CPO, and with Chinese markets still closed for the Lunar New Year celebrations, trade was sluggish and investors looked more to external cues rather than to generally supportive supply-demand fundamentals.
As crude oil and soyoil futures headed lower during Asian trading hours, CPO prices followed suit.
Towards the end of trade on the BMD, crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down $0.79 at $75.48 a barrel.
March soyoil futures on the electronic Chicago Board of Trade were down 15 points at 38.60 cents a pound.
“Apart from thin trade resulting in prices not moving all that much, CPO prices didn’t breach the MYR2,600 support as bullish local fundamentals such as falling production mean supply might be affected in the near future,” said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.
Traders estimate production is likely to fall by around 10% in February and even more in March.
“Many participants are waiting for the Chinese to return to the market before making any moves. Perhaps by next week we’ll have a better picture of where CPO price levels should be, but there’s a strong likelihood the support level of MYR2,600 will hold this week,” another Kuala Lumpur-based trader said.
In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June delivery traded at $800/ton, a Singapore-based trader said.
Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR20 lower at MYR2,630/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 81,347 lots Thursday, up from 79,210 lots Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
Some 9,967 lots of CPO were traded versus 14,161 lots Wednesday.
Closing BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT:
Month Close Previous Change High Low
Mar 2010 2,619 2,627 Dn 8 2,623 2,614
Apr 2010 2,604 2,620 Dn 16 2,620 2,604
May 2010 2,600 2,628 Dn 28 2,617 2,600
Jun 2010 2,600 2,615 Dn 15 2,610 2,600
TOKYO, Feb 18 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged down towards $77 a barrel
on Thursday as the dollar held onto gains from the previous day, making commodities
such as crude oil costlier for holders of other currencies.
* NYMEX crude for March delivery CLc1 was down 26 cents at $77.07 a barrel
by 0017 GMT, after settling up 32 cents on Wednesday, when the market weighed
upbeat news from the Federal Reserve and other positive economic data against pressure from a
* U.S. crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly and product stocks rose as refineries
increased activity last week, according to weekly data from industry group
American Petroleum Institute released late on Wednesday. [API/S]
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly oil statistics
later on Thursday. [EIA/S]
Pada petang ini harga FCPO APRIL contract ditutup rendah berbanding semalam (Rabu 17.2.2010) jatuh kepada 2604 mata. Kejatuhan harga dipengaruhi oleh kejatuhan harga minyak mentah & minyak soya dipasaran dunia. Kepada para traders yang telah mengambil posisi LONG diminta berhati2 dengan pergerakan harga untuk hari esok. Ramalan harga FCPO akan diketahui pada esok pagi berdasarkan pergerakan harga minyak mentah & minyak soya pada malam ini. Saya akan kembali dengan update terkini........
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Salam para trader....
Hari ini seperti yang dijangka paras FCPO telah melebihi 2600. Saya telah mengambil profit hari ini dengan keuntungan 40 mata. Petang tadi saya telah ambil kembali LONG position kerana menjangkakan harga akan naik berikutan kenaikan harga minyak mentah & minyak soya pada malam ini. Apa2 pun boleh terjadi.....risiko penurunan tetap ada jika cuaca dikebanyakan kawasan Amerika kembali pulih dan permintaan yang kurang terhadap minyak soya. Para trader perlu berhati-hati pada reversal signal bagi mengelakkan kerugian.....
MORNING UPDATE - 06:40 18.02.2010
Pada pagi ini dijangkakan berlaku penurunan harga CPO pada sesi pembukaan. Harga NYMEX crude oil (77.35/bbl) & CBOT soy oil (3b.75) ditutup lebih rendah berbanding semalam. Para traders dinasihatkan berhati2 jika ada signal reversal. Jika berlaku penurunan mendadak cepat2 keluar dari pasaran setelah disahkan melalui T.A walaupun berlaku sedikit kerugian.
Diharap para traders mendapat keuntungan pada hari ini.
TRADING RULE 1 - Jangan tamak
TRADING RULE 2 - Kuasai Rule 1
Note: The subject expressed above is based on fundamental analysis and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.
BARCELONA: Malaysia is recognised as among countries which have contributed significantly to the advancement in the mobile broadband industry, Information Communication and Culture Minister Datuk Seri Dr Rais Yatim said.
He said the recognition spurred Malaysia to further expand and expedite the usage of the technology, especially the Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX), in rural areas.
“WiMAX, via the 2.3GHz and 2.6GHz frequencies, will be the key technology for the mobile industry in Malaysia,” he told reporters at the end of his three-day visit here.
He said that by August, the service would be expanded nationwide through numerous initiatives to be launched by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak and Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.
“We will carry this out in collaboration with Telekom Malaysia and several telcos,” he said.
Rais said among the initiatives was the setting up of community Internet clubs in villages as well as in towns.
“I expect that by August, there will be a greater access to the service in Malaysia,” he said.
Rais is among the ministers in charge of telecommunications who were invited to the ministerial meeting and roundtable discussions involving the government sector and industry players in conjunction with the 2010 World Mobile Telecommunication Congress here.
He said that the recognition was not only due to the country’s mobile phone access, which is at 106% and surpassed the 31% broadband penetration benchmark, but also because of the commitment shown by the government towards the industry and technology.
“We welcome the call for special attention to be given to broadband access due its rapid development globally,” he said. He added that globally, there were about five billion broadband subscribers and that Malaysia too was expected to see an increase in the number of broadband users.
“We are also looking into the latest development in the industry including the long term evolution (LTE), which is the technology beyond 3G, WiFi and WiMAX,” he said.
During the three-day congress involving about 1,000 industry players, Rais, accompanied by Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission chairman Tan Sri Khalid Ramli, also visited exhibition which showcased the latest ICT gadgets and software.
Based on his observation at the congress and exhibition here, he said, Malaysia was able to keep up with the latest developments in mobile technology. — Bernama
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended higher Wednesday on the back of higher-than-expected exports and higher crude oil futures, said trade participants.
The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR48 higher at MYR2,628 a metric ton, after trading in a MYR2,606-MYR2,628/ton range.
Cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports in the Feb. 1-15 period fell 5.5% from a month earlier to 607,660 tons.
However, the estimates were higher than market expectations of around 570,000 tons.
Another cargo surveyor, Intertek Agri Services, Tuesday estimated the figure at 565,114 tons, a decrease of 16% on month.
"The market is expecting exports to fall from mid-February and through to March. But production is also expected to fall, probably by around 10%, so the impact of lower exports would be minimal especially if the fall is within expectations," said a Singapore-based trader.
Another Singapore-based trader said the SGS estimates were surprising as exports didn't fall as much as expected and supported CPO prices in a market lacking fresh local cues.
The lack of fresh local cues due to the closure of several Asian markets for the Lunar New Year holiday prompted sluggish, rangebound trade for most of the day.
"Trading activity might pick up only next week when Chinese buyers re-enter the market," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.
Higher crude oil futures during Asian trading hours also supported CPO prices. At the end of trade on the BMD, crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up $0.26 at $75.94 a barrel.
In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June traded at $800/ton, said a Singapore-based trader.
Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR60 higher at MYR2,650/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 79,210 lots last trade Friday, up from 78,551 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
Some 14,161 lots of CPO were traded versus 8,789 lots Friday.
Dijangkakan FCPO untuk hari Rabu berada dalam arah "uptrend" berdasarkan maklumat F.A pada jam 12:email@example.com. Harga CBOT Soybean Oil berada pada paras 38.90 & Harga Crude Oil (CL) mencecah USD76/bbl. Jika harga masing2 mencecah 39.00 & 76.50 sehingga pukul 4:00am waktu Malaysia, arah pergerakan FCPO akan cenderung kekal "uptrend". Oleh itu para traders disarankan berada pada posisi LONG. Walaubagaimanapun sila berhati2 pada reversal signal dalam short term trading.
Note: The subject expressed above is based on fundamental analysis and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.
06:30 Malaysia Time
Harga FCPO pada hari ini dijangka mengalami kenaikan berikutan kenaikan harga Crude Oil & Soybean Oil. CBOT SOYBEAN OIL ditutup pada 38.95 & CRUDE OIL ditutup pada 77.10/bbl. Diharap para trader mendapat profit pada minggu ini berikutan berita positif dari kedua-dua indikator ini.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Hock Heng executive chairman and managing director Low Kim Hock said the company will launch its prospectus followed by its listing next month.
"We have been preparing for the listing since last year and this year will be a good year for the construction sector as forecast by the Finance Ministry," Low told reporters at a briefing in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.
Public Investment Bank Bhd is the adviser, managing underwriter, underwriter and sole placement agent for the IPO while both Mercury Securities Sdn Bhd and JF Apex Securities Bhd are co-underwriters.
The IPO involves a public issue of 15.3 million new shares and an offer for sale of 14.3 million existing shares at an IPO price of 55 sen each.
About half of the money or RM4 million will be used to fund working capital. It will use RM2.1 million to maintain its quarry, spend RM1.5 million on listing expenses and the remaining RM800,000 to partly fund a second processing plant in Pekan Subang, Selangor.
The plant, situated on a 0.8ha site, will feature a warehouse and stone processing machines.
This will be Hock Heng's first plant in the Klang Valley.
Established in 1998, Malaccabased Hock Heng is one of Malaysia's top three dimension stones maker, seller and distributor.
Dimension stones are basically natural rock material such as marble, granite, slate, sandstone, semi processed stones and rock slabs that have been cut into a specific shape and size for use in building, construction projects and monuments.
The company has no export market yet due to overwhelming demand in the country. The dimension stone sector was worth RM220.4 million in 2008. Hock Heng has 22.5 per cent of the market share.
It has been involved in projects like the Prime Minister's office in Putrajaya, Suria Stonor condominium in KL Sentral and water features and landscaping in the Kuala Lumpur City Centre.
The local stock market suffered a third week of sell-off initially triggered by heightened concern over the potential sovereign debt default of some European countries, dragging the benchmark index to a four-month low, before buyers returned to prop up prices on signs other EU countries are likely to bailout Greece and control the large budget deficit.
The blue-chip benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) recovered 5.49 points, or 0.44 per cent, last week to settle at 1,253.39, contributed by gains on IOI Corp (+12 sen), Axiata (+8 sen), Maybank (+9 sen), AMMB (+16 sen) and Tenaga (+9 sen) . Daily average traded volume and value slowed further to 673 million shares worth RM1.11 billion, compared with the 883.2 million shares and RM1.25 billion average the previous week.
Global markets that were stifled by worries over Greece's debt crisis, liquidity tightening in China and the US government's exit strategies recovered slightly as the week draws to a close. Main reasons for clawing back some of the earlier losses were the European Union leaders' affirmation in rescuing Greece, lower than expected China's inflation and lower-than-estimated US jobless claims.
Hopes of a solution to Greek's fiscal woes, despite lack of details, assuaged investors that similar commitment from EU could be forthcoming if Spain and Portugal face trouble.
Despite the current "noise level", it is noteworthy to acknowledge that global economic conditions have improved and the current worries are more focused on the impact of counteracting measures to prevent economic overheating and inflationary pressures in the not distant future than the absence of growth.
Being the world's largest economy, actions taken by the US will be closely watched and this column believes that liquidity tightening measures like raising funds rate will be the last thing on the cards and may not happen until this July or later as the housing and job markets are still weak. Data on housing starts and building permits that will be released tomorrow is expected to result in a mixed reaction on current housing market conditions.
In the interim period, the Federal Reserve may choose to not extend its asset buyback programme that expires in March, introduce reverse repos and pay interest on reserves to limit currency circulation in the system. Perhaps, investors should monitor closely the dwindling credit spread between corporate and government debt, which is an important indicator of the private sector's willingness to take risk and pick up the baton of growth from the public sector.
Locally, no major economic indicators are due for announcement this week, except for foreign reserve numbers this Friday. Nonetheless, in the absence of any dampeners and usual pick-up in activities post CNY, investors are expected to drive up the benchmark index in the next seven trading days before the February month ends.
Fundamentally, good corporate earnings for the last October-to-December period, where the announcements will be concluded by this month-end, will be supportive of the index expansion and technical indicators, hovering in oversold territories, are pointing in the same direction as well.
Spot month January KLCI futures contract traded on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Bhd rose 3.50 points, or 0.3 per cent, week-on-week to close at 1,247, representing a 6.4-point discount to the cash index, compared with the 4.4-point discount the previous week.
Bursa Malaysia shares dipped sharply last Monday, with banks leading falls on concern China's credit tightening measures will adversely impact economic growth in the region.
Overnight losses in the US with the Dow Jones average sinking below 10,000 on concern over the fiscal stability of Greece, Portugal and Spain further depressed sentiment the next day, but speculation of an UE bailout for Greece sparked a regional rebound in the afternoon and lifted stocks off earlier lows.
Stocks extended rebound on Wednesday, encouraged by gains in Hong Kong and China due to strong exports data and increasing hopes the EU will bailout Greece. The market recouped further ground the next day with regional markets rising further on improving sentiment from slower inflation and increase in loan growth in China and as Australian jobs growth slowed.
The KLCI peaked at a high of 1,249.42 on Thursday's close and a low of 1,224.37 on Tuesday in the early morning trading session. The trading range last week was at 25.05 points, compared with the 20.75-point range the previous week.
The FBM-EMAS Index rose 30.80 points, or 0.37 per cent, last week to close at 8,436.33, while the FBM-Small Cap Index fell 49.57 points or 0.47 per cent to 10,443.76.
The daily slow stochastics indicator for the KLCI triggered another buy signal from the oversold zone following last Friday's strength (Chart 1), while the weekly indicator has fallen to the lower neutral zone.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has recovered for a more positive reading at 41.40, while the 14-week RSI le-velled off to register a neutral reading at 56.84.
Meantime, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trend indicator has also leveled off for a less negative reading, but the weekly MACD continued its bearish journey southwards. As for the 14-day Directional Movement Index (DMI) trend indicator, the +DI and -DI lines have contracted on a levelling ADX line with a reading below 25, signalling a non-trending mode.
Technical momentum indicators for KLCI has improved significantly following last week's dip and rebound from oversold levels, highlighted by a daily slow stochastics buy signal, suggesting more positive sentiment this week as market players return from the long Chinese New Year break.
The sighting of a bullish "hammer" candle on the weekly chart adds weight to our bullish view that the local market would stage a strong comeback up to the end of the month. Note that the month of February has ended positive in 14 of the past 20 years, with an average gain of 3.8 per cent. The further improvement in global stock markets will provide a booster to sentiment locally, with investors likely to closely follow the performance of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets.
As for the KLCI, the bullish breakout above 1,249, the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of 1,154 to 1308, will enhance upside initially to 1,256, the 38.2 per cent FR of the sell down from 1,308 high to recent pivot low of 1,224, with stronger hurdles likely at the 100-day and 50-day moving averages, currently at 1,260 and 1,273. Immediate support is upgraded further to 1,240, with 1,231, 1,224 and 1,213 as progressively stronger support platforms.
Chart-wise, banking stocks CIMB, Maybank and Public Bank are still preferred after their recent profit-taking corrections which are healthy to encourage more buying from sidelined investors. Plantation counters IOI Corp and Sime Darby are also better bargains at current levels.
On the lower-liner space, look for buying opportunities on dips in rubber glove makers Adventa, IRCB, Latexx and Supermax, while Dialog and Kencana should outperform in the medium term.