Saturday, June 5, 2010

CPO May Bearish Next Monday

Hi Traders,

As the CPO movement in tight range last week up and down, Low=2425 H=2482 C=2474,  it is expected the price will going down towards 2400 due to down trend of NYMEX crude oil & CBOT soybean oil. However long term trend still bearish mode. In addition expected CPO output and inventory may rise for May 2010, but still need to confirm with MPOB report on 10 June 2010. Therefore weigh the CPO price to 2400 level. If the opening price for Monday below than 2470, the price will rapidly going down towards 2440 level.

* Note: This is only my opinion based on experienced, fundamental reserach and technical analysis.

Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Up On Crude Oil, Weaker Ringgit

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended up Friday, rebounding from losses in the previous session as a recovery in crude oil and weakness in the ringgit prompted investors to cover short positions, trade participants said.

The benchmark August contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR18 higher at MYR2,474 a metric ton after moving in a range of MYR2,455-MYR2,481/ton.

The dollar rose to MYR3.2720 from yesterday’s close of MYR3.2700, making CPO less expensive for palm oil refiners, who use the oil as feedstock.

“Crude’s rise above $75 a barrel and the rebound in soyoil gave palm prices a leg-up in the late trading session,” said a senior trading executive based in Singapore.
July soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 5 points higher at 37.71 cents a pound at the end of trading on the BMD.

July crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose as much as 81 cents or 1.1% to $75.42 a barrel on Globex. At 0946 GMT, the July contract was up 54 cents at $75.15 a barrel.

Palm prices rose 1.6% this week, but many among traders said the trend wasn’t sustainable due to a likely rise in end-May palm oil inventory levels, as CPO output in Malaysia likely rose around 10% last month.
The rise in palm prices also narrowed the spread to prices of soyoil, resulting in a loss of market share as buyers stepped up purchases of the rival product, which is offered at par or slightly lower prices than palm oil at Brazilian and Argentinian ports, a trading executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage firm said.
Demand in the physical market “hasn’t been exciting and palm-soyoil’s narrow spread has prevented significant gains in CPO prices the past few months,” he said.

Cash palm olein used to be offered at a wide discount to soyoil of more than $100/ton, but now trades at par or at a slight premium.

Traders expect palm prices to move between MYR2,440 and MYR2,480/ton next week. A weak demand outlook and likely bearish production and inventory data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will cap gains.
The government-run Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue production, exports and month-end palm oil stocks data for May on June 10.

CME’s Group Inc.’s (CME) dollar-based CPO futures for September were trading $5.25 higher at $744.75/ton with 9 lots traded. One lot equals 25 tons.

August rupiah-denominated CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange ended 0.8% higher at IDR6,835 a kilogram with 84 lots traded. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons. The September contract ended 0.7% higher at IDR6,755/kg with 132 lots done.

In the cash market, palm olein for June shipment was offered unchanged at $805/ton. Cash CPO for prompt shipment also offered unchanged at MYR2,570/ton.

Open interest on the BMD was 69,501 lots, versus 69,525 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
A total of 10,117 lots of CPO were traded versus 9,631 lots Thursday.

Closing BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: 

Month   Close  Previous  Change   High    Low
Jun'10  2,560     2,538  Up  22   2,562   2,555
Jul'10  2,515     2,492  Up  23   2,521   2,495
Aug'10  2,474     2,456  Up  18   2,481   2,455
Sep'10  2,448     2,429  Up  19   2,455   2,431 
-By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233; shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 04, 2010 06:38 ET (10:38 GMT)

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

DJ Asian CPO Futures End Off Highs; MPOB Data Likely Bearish

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended off highs Wednesday as crude traded lower and amid a likely rise in end-May palm oil inventory levels, prompting investors to take profit, trade participants said.

The benchmark August contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR8 higher at MYR2,468 a metric ton.

Despite bearish market sentiment, prices were higher during afternoon trade, rising to an intraday high of MYR2,480/ton as speculative buying and higher soyoil during Asian trading hours lifted prices up.

Traders had expected a fall in futures prices after overnight declines in crude and soyoil market and since data from the government-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board aren't likely to be price-friendly.

The MPOB is scheduled to issue Malaysia's May palm oil production, export and stock data June 10.

Traders estimate Malaysia's end-May palm oil inventories to be little changed to a tad higher, between 1.62 million tons and 1.65 million tons due to higher CPO supply.

Growers and traders estimated May palm oil output rose 10% on month. Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. put May palm oil exports at 1.33 million tons and 1.32 million tons, respectively.

"Prices couldn't sustain at higher levels as palm oil demand has been tad a sluggish," said a senior trading executive from Kuala Lumpur.

Many among buyers are only making purchases to replenish supplies and no large deals have been reported in the market so far that could push prices higher, he said.

Purchases by buyers have been slow as palm olein, a key product used for food-making, is more expensive than soyoil in the cash market, a Singapore-based trading executive said.

July soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade finished 9 points lower at 37.52 cents a pound on Tuesday.

At 1001 GMT, July soyoil was trading 21 points higher on e-CBOT at 37.73 cents a pound.

July crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 35 cents lower at $72.23 a barrel at 1001 GMT.

In the cash market, palm olein for June shipment offered at $800/ton while Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered unchanged at MYR2,560/ton.

Meanwhile, no trades were reported on CME's Group Inc.'s (CME) dollar-based CPO futures for  September contract at 1007 GMT. The benchmark August rupiah-denominated CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange ended 0.2% lower at IDR6,750 a kilogram, with 151 lots traded. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons. The September contract ended 0.1% lower at IDR6,680/kg, with 122 lots done.

Open interest on the BMD was 68,662 lots, versus 68,982 lots Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 15,499 lots of CPO were traded versus 10,109 lots Tuesday.

Closing BMD CPO futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: 
 
Month   Close  Previous  Change   High    Low 
Jun'10  2,535     2,533  Up   02  2,551   2,530 
Jul'10  2,505     2,509  Down 04  2,521   2,496 
Aug'10  2,468     2,460  Up   08  2,480   2,458 
Sep'10  2,445     2,432  Up   13  2,457   2,432 
 
 
  -By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;
shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com 
 

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

DJ Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Up On Speculative Buying, Short Covering

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange rose 1% Tuesday on speculative buying and short covering in late trade despite a fall in soyoil and crude prices, with investors hoping festive demand in the coming months ahead of Ramadan may boost exports.

The benchmark August contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR24 or 1% higher at an intraday high of MYR2,460 a metric ton.

The ringgit's slide against the dollar also gave some support to prices, an analyst in Kuala Lumpur said. The dollar rose to MYR3.3030, from MYR3.2550 Monday.

Trade participants said export shipments are gradually gaining momentum ahead of Ramadan, the Islamic month of fasting. This may support the market, said a Singapore-based trading executive.

But some traders said palm's export growth hinges on the differential with soyoil.

Since last year, palm has lost market share due to a diminishing differential to soyoil as prices were supported by a weak outlook for palm output this year even as the strong soybean crop in South America weighed on prices.

Crude soyoil for June shipment, free on board Argentinian ports was offered at $790/ton compared with palm olein for June offered at $800/ton, FOB Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based cash market broker.

Soyoil and crude oil were trading mostly in negative territory during Asian trading hours, weighing on CPO for most parts of the trading session.

July soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 13 points lower at 37.48 cents a pound by the end of trade on the BMD.

At 1014 GMT, crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading $2.02 lower at $71.95 a barrel on Globex.

In the cash market, palm olein for July shipment was traded at $787.50/ton, October/November/December shipment at $772.50, $773.50 fob Malaysian ports, said another Singapore-based trading executive.

Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR10 higher at MYR2,560/ton.

Meanwhile, no trades were reported on CME's Group Inc.'s (CME) dollar-based CPO futures for the September contract.

The benchmark August rupiah-denominated CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange ended 0.7% higher at IDR6,760 a kilogram, with 102 lots traded. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons. The September contract ended 0.1% higher at IDR6,685/kg, with 140 lots done.

Open interest on the BMD was 68,982 lots, versus 70,020 lots Monday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 10,109 lots of CPO were traded versus 9,540 lots Monday.

Closing BMD CPO futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: 
 
Month   Close  Previous  Change   High    Low 
Jun'10  2,536     2,499  Up  37   2,536   2,515 
Jul'10  2,509     2,475  Up  34   2,509   2,474 
Aug'10  2,460     2,436  Up  24   2,460   2,430 
Sep'10  2,432     2,401  Up  31   2,432   2,403 
 
 
  -By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;
shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com 

Monday, May 31, 2010

DJ Malaysia May Palm Oil Exports 1.32 Mln Tons, +8.6% -SGS

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Malaysia's palm oil exports in May rose 8.6% from April to 1.32 million metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Monday.

SGS estimated exports at 1.22 million tons in April. An estimate by another surveyor, Intertek Agri Services, put May exports at 1.33 million tons, up 13% on month.

The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:

(All figures in metric tons)

May        April 
   RBD Palm Olein     597,936      551,307 
   RBD Palm Oil       160,830      123,305 
   RBD Palm Stearin   125,061      127,279 
   Crude Palm Oil     191,500      217,580 
   Total*           1,323,465    1,219,041 
 
   Major importers of Malaysian palm oil: 
 
   European Union     234,350     299,118 
   China              339,532     316,550 
   U.S.               193,411      62,870 
   India               78,150      48,500 
   Pakistan           107,600     153,450
 
*Palm oil product volumes don't add up to total as some products aren't
included. 
  
 SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de
Surveillance Group. 
 
 
 
 -By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;
shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com