Crude palm oil futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives dived 
this week following the sharp plunge in US soybean prices, the 
anticipation of rising palm oil stocks and the continuation of weak 
economic data in China.
The benchmark FCPO December contract 
plunged RM174 or 5.93 per cent to close at RM2,762 per tonne on Friday 
from RM2,936 per tonne last Friday.
The trading range for the week was from RM2,755 to RM2,894.
Total volume traded for the week amounted to 184,766 contracts, down 14,365 contracts from the previous week.
The open interest as at Thursday increased to 131,290 contracts from 120,285 contracts the previous Thursday.
Crude
 palm oil prices opened the week sharply lower after the long weekend 
break, following the daily down-limit in soybean prices on Monday.
The
 soybean complex prices were under tremendous selling pressure this week
 due to the on-going US harvest and the anticipation of better US 
soybean yields.
The weekly crop progress report released by US 
Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday indicated the soybean crop 
harvest was reported 10 per cent complete, advancing from four per cent 
the previous week and was well above the average harvest of four per 
cent for the past five years.
This had driven the funds that were 
holding large amount of long positions in soybean complex to exit their 
positions and triggered some speculative selling as well.
The 
favourable weather in Brazil this month allowed the farmers to start an 
early soybean planting for their harvest in 2013 also added to the 
selling pressure.
The preliminary manufacturing data in China for 
September was showing further contraction for the consecutive of 
11-month which may dampen the demand for the global commodities from the
 world second largest economy.
Cargo surveyor ITS released the 
palm oil export figures for the period of September 1 to 20 on Thursday 
at 928,110 tonnes, a jump of 14.61 per cent while another surveyor SGS 
at 900,450 tonnes, a surge of 12.78 per cent from the same period last 
month.
The strong export demand failed to turn around the weak 
market sentiment in palm oil as some traders expected the high 
production in September would be more than enough to offset the strong 
demand, leading to rising palm oil stocks which could cross more than 
2.2 million tonnes.
Most traders would be waiting for the views 
from the top industry analysts such as Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and 
Dr.James Fry on the price outlook for edible oils in year 2012/13 during
 an industry conference in Mumbai, India from September 22 to 23.
Technical View
The benchmark December contract broke all the major supports and was under significant selling pressure.
The
 latest chart development painted a bearish view on palm oil prices 
especially the price broke RM2,820 level and tested the low of RM2,755, a
 level not seen since October 2011.
If the palm oil prices further
 broke the RM2,754 level, it will attract more technical selling and 
long liquidation which may further push the market down for another few 
hundred ringgit.
The rise above RM2,820 level will pull the market back to sideway consolidation mode.
Resistance would be pegged at RM2,820 and RM2,989 while support was set at RM2,754 and RM2,520.
Major fundamental news this coming week
Malaysian export data for September 1-25 by ITS and SGS on September 25.
