Friday, July 16, 2010

Friday Trading Tip (October Contract): Bullish Sentiment May Continue

Hi traders,

CPO ended higher yesterday. Bullish tone too strong as the demand from Pakistan surged within this week. The bullish sentiment may continue today and downside correction may develop during trading session. CPO may bullish if open > 2395-2420 and close > 2425. But it may temporary bearish if open < 2365-2380 and close < 2350. I'm expecting temporary downside correction may develop today but the major trend still in bullish tone.

Just my 2cents.....

Happy trading......

Crude Palm Oil Ends Up 2.4%; Higher Exports, Supply Worries

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended up for the sixth trading session Thursday, partly on the back of higher exports and talk of weaker growth in July palm oil production.

Palm prices powered higher towards the end of trade on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange as momentum for the rally seemed to be building tracking reports of higher demand from Pakistan in preparation for Ramadan, the Islamic month of fasting, trade participants said.

The benchmark September contract on the BMD rose as much as 2.7% to a five-week high of MYR2,445 a metric ton before ending MYR58 or 2.4% higher at MYR2,439/ton. The September contract expires today.

Pakistan, the third-largest buyer of palm oil after India and China, has bought up to 225,000 tons of palm oil in July amid rising demand.

Demand from the country may extend to August, said Rasheed Janmohammad, vice-chairman of the Pakistan Edible Oil Refiners Association.

The South Asian nation usually purchases 80,000-125,000 tons a month on average.

Cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Pakistan imported 140,696 tons in the first 15 days of July.

“We expect August to be a heavy buying month as well, with palm oil imports likely to reach 150,000 tons,” Janmohammad told Dow Jones Newswires.

Only 20%-30% of the country’s requirements have been purchased so far for August, he added.

Earlier this month trade participants and analysts said they expected July output to rise 10% on month on a seasonal uptick in supply, but a possible supply shortfall due to lower yields in the states of Sabah and Sarawak led them to revise the growth forecast to 5%.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board put June output at 1.42 million tons, up 2.5% on month.

Growers also said the recent heavy rainfall in several oil palm growing regions may boost future production prospects, but it has hurt palm oil extraction rates from fresh fruit bunches, slowing growth in production.

Palm prices had been under pressure in the past few months ahead of a seasonal supply increase during the July-September quarter, but rising festive demand from the Indian subcontinent and the Middle East may lead to a drawdown in palm inventories, boosting prices.

Export figures by cargo surveyors were better than market expectations of a 10%-11% rise, supporting the rally in prices.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated exports in the first 15 days of July at 668,573 tons, up 11% on month, while another surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., put the figure at 708,384 tons.

In the cash market, palm olein for October/November/December shipment was traded at $770/ton and $772.50/ton, September at $780/ton free on board Malaysian ports, a Singapore-based trading executive said.

Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR10 higher at MYR2,470/ton.

CME Group Inc.’s dollar-based CPO futures for the September contract was up $37.50 from the U.S. Monday close at $707.25, with three lots done.

The rupiah-denominated October CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange was trading 0.9% higher at IDR6,435 a kilogram at 0924 GMT, with 92 lots changing hands. One lot equals 10 tons.

Open interest on the BMD was 71,380 lots, versus 72,521 lots Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 30,313 lots of CPO were traded versus 10,680 lots Wednesday.

Closing BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: 

Month   Close  Previous  Change   High    Low
Jul'10  2,465     2,460  Up  05  2,472  2,453
Aug'10  2,459     2,423  Up  36  2,473  2,428
Sep'10  2,439     2,381  Up  58  2,445  2,378
Oct'10  2,411     2,363  Up  48  2,418  2,353 


-By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233; shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 15, 2010 07:17 ET (11:17 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Thursday Trading Tip: Bullish Trend Confirm

Hi traders,

CPO ended higher yesterday at 2381 lvl. Strong momentum pushing up the CPO to highest lvl at 2384 due to increase export data estimates by SGS & Intertek. CPO to continue uptrend if open > 2373-2385 and close > 2390 and will downtrend if open < 2355-2365 and close < 2355. However i'm expecting CPO continue to bullish today due to bullish export data release by surveyor by today. Take your position nicely....

Just my 2cents....

Happy trading

"TRADES WITH YOUR MIND, DON'T TRADE WITH YOUR EMOTION.....OTHERWISE YOU WILL LOST"

Crude Palm Oil Ends Up 1.2%; Likely Higher July 1-15 Exports

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange rose for a fifth trading session Wednesday, as expectations of higher exports during the July 1-15 period prompted covering of short positions, trade participants said.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR28 higher or 1.2% higher at MYR2,381, after rising to a two-week high of MYR2,384/ton in intraday trade.

Exports for the first 15 days of July probably rose 10%-11% on month to around 668,000 tons, a Singapore-based trading executive said.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated exports in the first 15 days of last month at 600,921 tons, while SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. put the figure at 608,324 tons. Both surveyors will issue July 1-15 palm oil export data on Thursday.

According to Malaysia-based growers, the recent heavy rainfall in several oil palm growing regions may boost future production prospects, but it has hurt palm oil extraction rates from fresh fruit bunches, so growth in production growth is likely to be slower.

The extraction rate of oil from palm fruit is typically in a range of 20%-25%. Growers and trade participants said that figure has declined to around 18%-18.6%.

The oil palm growing regions of Southeast Asia will likely see mostly wet weather for the rest of the week, according to Chicago-based meteorologist Mike Tannura.

Occasional rainfall and thunderstorms may bring around two inches of rain in key palm oil areas, Tannura said in a weekly report.

In the cash market, palm olein for October/November/December shipment was traded at $762.50/ton, free on board Malaysian ports, a Singapore-based trading executive said.

Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR30 higher at MYR2,460/ton.

CME Group Inc.’s dollar-based CPO futures contract wasn’t traded during Asian hours.

The rupiah-denominated October CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange was trading 1.7% higher at IDR6,410 a kilogram at 1045 GMT, with 183 lots changing hands. One lot equals 10 tons.

Open interest on the BMD was 72,521 lots, versus 72,201 lots Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 10,680 lots of CPO were traded versus 12,376 lots Tuesday.

Closing BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: 

Month   Close  Previous  Change   High    Low
Jul'10  2,460     2,449  Up  11  2,460  2,451
Aug'10  2,423     2,395  Up  28  2,428  2,400
Sep'10  2,381     2,353  Up  28  2,384  2,357
Oct'10  2,363     2,335  Up  28  2,366  2,340 


-By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233; shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 14, 2010 06:59 ET (10:59 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Wednesday Trading Tips: Bullish Sign TRENDING

Hi traders,

CPO ended higher yesterday at 2353 lvl. Positive sentiment expected to continue today as the overnight C.O & S.O in bullish tone. CPO may test 2340-2365 level if open > 2340-2355 and close > 2357. But may go down if open < 2325-2335 and close < 2320. I'm expecting CPO to open high today.......

Just my 2cents....

Happy trading...

Thanks & regards

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

DJ Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Up 0.6% On Short Covering, Crude

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended higher Tuesday with the rise in crude oil prices and bullish local fundamentals prompting investors to cover shorts, trade participants said.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR13 or 0.6% higher at MYR2,353 a metric ton after moving in a MYR2,325-MYR2,354 range.

Export shipments are gaining momentum and this may support the market, said a Kuala Lumpur-based executive at an international trading company.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia's palm oil exports during the July 1-10 period rose 9% to 474,928 tons, while another surveyor put exports in the same period at 460,343 tons.

Many among trade participants said selling pressure over the past few weeks and lower palm inventory levels have reduced the downside potential for prices for now, with strong support for prices around MYR2,280-MYR2,300/ton.

But if soyoil futures continue to decline later on the CBOT, it will have a spillover impact on palm oil, said a Kuala Lumpur-based analyst.

December soyoil was trading 12 points lower at 38.24 cents a pound by the end of trade on the BMD.

Short-term forecasts by analysts point to lower palm oil prices over the next few months despite a bullish crop report by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board as production is expected to recover and may rise to a peak in the
September-November period.

"We believe the shortfall in palm production could be a reflection of the general shortage of foreign workers in Malaysia, which resulted in lower-than-expected yields. Output should recover seasonally in the next few
months," Tan Ting Min, an analyst at Credit Suisse Malaysia, said.

Despite the weak growth in June production, a double-digit rise in output this month would probably mean inventory levels may reach higher levels at end-July, analysts and plantation company executives said.

In the cash market, palm olein for September shipment was traded at $765/ton, and for October/November/December at $757.50/ton, free on board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based trading executive.

Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR10 lower at MYR2,430/ton.

CME Group Inc.'s dollar-based CPO futures contract and the rupiah-denominated September CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange weren't traded during Asian hours.

Open interest on the BMD was 72,201 lots, versus 73,512 lots Monday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 12,376 lots of CPO were traded versus 15,227 lots Monday.

Closing BMD CPO futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: 
 
Month   Close  Previous  Change   High    Low 
Jul'10  2,450     2,440  Up  10  2,450  2,438 
Aug'10  2,395     2,384  Up  11  2,398  2,375 
Sep'10  2,353     2,340  Up  13  2,353  2,325 
Oct'10  2,335     2,321  Up  14  2,335  2,310 
 
 
  -By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;
shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com 

Tuesday Trading Tip: +ve Direction of CPO

Hi traders,

CPO ended high yesterday at 2338 lvl due to positive export data and lack of CPO inventories data reported by MPOB. The bullish sentiment too strong pushing the price highest up to 2341 lvl. The bullish trend will continue today if open > 2325-2340 and close >2345. But the CPO will downtrend if CPO open < 2300-2315 and close < 2300. I'm expecting CPO will temporary downtrend today, then climbing back immediately to test 2340-2350 lvl.

Take your position nicely.....

Just my 2cents....

Thanks

Crude Palm Oil Ends Up 1.7%; Inventories Down, Output Slower

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended higher Monday, as fresh buying was prompted by a fall in palm inventories to a nine-month low due to slower output growth, trade participants said.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR38 or 1.7% higher at MYR2,338 a metric ton. The contract never fell below the previous close during the session. Traders put immediate resistance for the benchmark at MYR2,350/ton.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board surprised investors with their issuance Monday of data on exports, production and end-month inventories in June.

"Investors weren't expecting stocks to fall. This (MPOB data) lifted sentiment and induced buying interest during the afternoon session," a Kuala Lumpur-based trading executive said.

MPOB estimated palm oil inventories at 1.45 million tons, down 7.1% from end-May, compared with market expectations of an increase to around 1.59 million tons.

Palm oil output rose only 2.5% in June to 1.42 million tons, below market expectations of a 5%-10% rise.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services Saturday estimated Malaysia's palm oil exports during the July 1-10 period up 9% at 474,928 tons.

Another surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., estimated the exports in the same period at 460,343 tons. Palm shipments to Pakistan, a major edible oils consumer, reached 93,750 tons, up more than five-fold from the same period in May, data from SGS showed.

Intertek data showed a two-fold increase in shipments to the Middle East at 38,490 tons for the July 1-10 period, from 18,800 tons in June.

Investors were also tracking the progress of monsoon rains in India, as any prolonged delay could hurt crop production and push up vegetable oil prices.

In the cash market, palm olein for August shipment was offered $10 higher at $795/ton.

Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR10 higher at MYR2,440/ton.

CME Group Inc.'s dollar-based September CPO futures contract for September was up $8.00 from its U.S. close at $724/ton.

Rupiah-denominated September CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange were 2.9% higher at IDR6,300 a kilogram at 0925 GMT, with four lots done.

The October contract was trading 0.4% higher at IDR6,295/kg with 80 lots changing hands. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons.

Open interest on the BMD was 73,512 lots, versus 72,569 lots Friday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 15,227 lots of CPO were traded versus 16,138 lots Friday.

Closing BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: 

Month   Close  Previous  Change   High    Low
Jul'10  2,440     2,430  Up  10  2,449  2,435
Aug'10  2,384     2,344  Up  40  2,385  2,356
Sep'10  2,338     2,300  Up  38  2,341  2,310
Oct'10  2,321     2,287  Up  34  2,322  2,295 
By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;  shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 12, 2010 06:37 ET (10:37 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc

Monday, July 12, 2010

DJ Malaysia July 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 460,343 Tons -SGS

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Malaysia's palm oil exports during the July 1-10 period rose 8.8% on month to 460,343 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Monday.

The estimate is better than market expectations of a 6.8% rise in shipments.

SGS estimated exports at 423,199 tons for the same period in June.

Another surveyor, Intertek Agri Services, put July 1-10 palm oil exports at 474,928 tons Saturday.

The following are the major items in the SGS estimate: 
 
  (All figures in metric tons) 
 
 
                         July 1-10        June  1-10 
   RBD Palm Olein          203,351         179,084 
   RBD Palm Oil             50,753          51,649 
   RBD Palm Stearin         46,563          29,898 
   Crude Palm Oil           77,750          96,953 
   Total*                  460,343         423,199 
 
   Major importers of Malaysian palm oil: 
 
   European Union           70,781          98,117 
   China                    74,136         116,125 
   U.S.                     69,674          40,172 
   India                     7,800          27,602 
   Pakistan                 93,750          18,000 
 
*Palm oil product volumes don't add up to total as some products aren't
included. 
 
 
  SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de
Surveillance Group. 

DJ * Malaysia June CPO Output 1.42 Mln Tons; Up 2.5% On Month -MPOB

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Malaysia's June crude palm oil output rose 2.5% on month to 1.42 million metric tons, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said Monday.

CPO output totaled 1.39 million tons in May.

MPOB said in its monthly report that CPO exports rose 5.5% to 1.44 million tons in June. The country exported 1.36 million tons in May.

Palm oil inventories totaled 1.45 million tons at the end of June, down 7% from 1.56 million tons in May.

The following are details of the June crop data and revised numbers for May, issued by MPOB:

June             May     Change 
                                                     On Month 
Crude Palm Oil Output     1,420,062     1,385,424    Up  2.5% 
Palm Oil Exports          1,440,884     1,365,637    Up  5.5% 
Palm Kernel Oil Exports      60,227       112,480  Down   46% 
Palm Oil Imports             61,028       114,397  Down   47% 
Closing Stocks            1,451,434     1,562,323  Down  7.1% 
Crude Palm Oil              715,821       813,986  Down 12.1% 
Processed Palm Oil          735,613       748,337  Down  1.7% 
 
(All figures are in tons) 
 
 
  -By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;
shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com 

DJ MARKET TALK: BMD CPO Futures May Open MYR5-MYR15 Higher

[Dow Jones] BMD CPO futures called to open MYR5-MYR15 higher; tracks rise in regional equities, commodity markets. Malaysia July 1-10 palm shipments higher than market expectations for 6.8% rise, price-supportive, says exporter in Malaysia. Surveyor Intertek Saturday put July 1-10 exports at 474,928 tons, up
9% on month. Kuala Lumpur-based analyst tips MYR2,305-MYR2,325/ton. Benchmark September contract finished MYR11 higher at MYR2,300/ton Friday. Nymex August crude trading 1 cent higher at $76.10/bbl on Globex. (shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com)


Call us in Kuala Lumpur: +(603) 2026 1233

Sunday, July 11, 2010

USDA SOYBEAN STATS

Monday Trading Tip: Bull vs Bear

Hi traders,

CPO ended high last Friday at 2300 lvl. CPO export data from both ITS and SGS above expectations and C.O & B.O traded higher during Asian trading hour. Soybean stock ended low reported by USDA and might give +ve direction to CPO.  I'm expecting CPO may bullish Monday if open > 2300-2310 and close >2320. If CPO breaks 2323-2325 tomorrow, it may rally uptrend for the whole day. But it may downside if open <2293-2297 and close < 2290.  



Take your position nicely......

Just my 2cents.....
Thanks