DJ Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Up; July 1-10 Exports Likely Higher

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended higher Friday as crude oil prices rallied in Asian hours and bullish expectations for export demand during the July 1-10 period cheered investors.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR11 higher at MYR2,300 a metric ton, after moving in a MYR2,293/ton-MYR2,320/ton range.

Trade participants anticipate palm oil export data by cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services due Saturday will point to rising demand as a major Islamic festive season looms.

A shipping executive in Penang said Malaysia's palm oil shipments in the first 10 days of July likely rose 6.8% from the same period a month earlier, to around 465,000 tons. Another surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., is due to release its export estimate Monday.

Intertek and SGS pegged June 1-10 palm oil shipments at 435,148 tons and 423,199 tons, respectively.

Strong demand in the physical market lent support to the rise in futures prices, cash-market brokers said.

"Buyers have made brisk purchases to cover their requirements when prices fell to their lowest level on Wednesday," a senior trading executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage said.

A strong vessel lineup at Malaysian ports indicates exports will likely be higher for the first half of this month, he said.

"Major palm oil buyers such as India and Pakistan are back in the market," an executive at a global trading company said.

Some among trade participants liquidated positions ahead of a supply and demand crop report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture due later Friday that will confirm tight U.S. soybean crop and another, from the government-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board due Monday.

In the cash market, trade was active with palm olein for August changing hands at $772.50/ton, free-on-board Malaysian ports, September at $757.50/ton and $760/ton and October/November/December at $747.50/ton.

Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MRY20 higher at MYR2,430/ton.

CME Group Inc.'s dollar-based September CPO futures contract for September was up $3.50 from its U.S. close at $721.25/ton, with one 25-ton lot traded.

Rupiah-denominated September CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange were 1% higher at IDR6,300 a kilogram at 1023 GMT, with 141 lots done.

The October contract was trading 1% higher at IDR62,600/kg with 217 lots changing hands. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons.

Open interest on the BMD was 72,569 lots, versus 74,093 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 16,138 lots of CPO were traded versus 14,674 lots Thursday.

Closing BMD CPO futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: 
 
Month   Close  Previous  Change   High    Low 
Jul'10  2,429     2,420  Up  09   2,440   2,425 
Aug'10  2,344     2,330  Up  14   2,366   2,338 
Sep'10  2,300     2,289  Up  11   2,320   2,293 
Oct'10  2,287     2,275  Up  12   2,302   2,279 
 
 
  -By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;
shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com 
 

DJ MARKET TALK: BMD CPO Futures May Open MYR5-MYR10 Higher

[Dow Jones] BMD CPO futures called to open MYR5-MYR10 higher, tracking crude's rise, short covering. Stronger export demand in July to support, says Malaysia-based exporter. Tips trade in MYR2,280-MYR2,310/ton range today. But rise in ringgit likely to cap upside, says Kuala Lumpur-based analyst. Dollar
fell vs ringgit to MRY3.1900 vs MYR3.1925 yesterday. Benchmark September contract ended MYR20 higher at MYR2,290/ton. August crude oil trading 30 cents up at $75.74/bbl on Globex.
(shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com)


Call us in Kuala Lumpur: +(603) 2026 1233

Friday Trading Tip: CPO May test 2300 due to bullish overnight SO & CO

Hi traders

CPO closed at 2289 lvl Thursday. Its strongly pushed by S.O & C.O during Asian trading hours. CPO tested again 2300 and surge to highest lvl at 2310. It may uptrend today if CPO open >2296-2300 and close > 2305. But it may downtrend if open < 2285-2290 and close < 2285.

CPO likely to test back 2300 lvl due to bullish overnight S.O & C.O, but upside may limited. Overall trend is downside bias towards 2250.

NYMEX C.O@ 7.00am  = 75.76 (+0.32)    E-CBOT@7.00am = 36.67 (-0.14)


Just my 2cents....

Happy trading....

DJ Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Up 0.9% On Crude, U.S. Soybean Crop Fears

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange Thursday pared losses after hitting an eight-month low Wednesday, buoyed by a rally in soybean futures in Chicago on speculation that heavy rain would reduce yields in the U.S., improving demand prospects for palm oil.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR20 or 0.9% higher at MYR2,290 a metric ton after moving in a MYR2,286-MYR2,310 range.

The market got a boost from rally in external markets including crude oil, and a drop in soybean crop ratings, giving spillover buying interest in palm oil market.

August crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose as much as 1.4% to $75.10 a barrel in Asia. At 1011 GMT, August contract was trading 78 cents higher at $74.85/bbl.

"Any further weather issues (in U.S.) may lift (palm) prices higher. And those on short positions will be treading cautiously," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trading executive.

Soyoil futures rose to a one-week high Wednesday on the Chicago Board of Trade on support from lower soybean crop outlook. December soyoil ended 100 points higher at 37.69 cents a pound.

Nevertheless, concerns about rising output and end-month inventory levels will cap the rise in palm prices.

"Prices need to end above MYR2,330-MYR2,340/ton levels in the next trading session to sustain gains," said a Kuala Lumpur-based analyst.

June output probably rose 5%-10% on month and the supply may rise further in July as the palm oil sector in Malaysia moves into the high output cycle period, trade participants and analysts said.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board is expected to issue Malaysia palm oil production, stock and export data for June on Monday.

In the cash market, palm olein for September was traded at $755/ton and both October/November/December and January/February/March shipments traded at $747.50/ton, said a Singapore-based trading executive.

Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR20 higher at MYR2,410/ton.

CME Group Inc.'s dollar-based CPO futures contract for September wasn't traded in Asia.

Rupiah-denominated September CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange were trading 1.1% higher at IDR6,270 a kilogram at 0924 GMT, with 123 lots done.

The October contract was trading 0.9% higher at IDR6,200/kg with 208 lots changing hands. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons.

Open interest on the BMD was 74,093 lots, versus 74,304 lots Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 14,674 lots of CPO were traded versus 14,018 lots Wednesday.

Closing BMD CPO futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: 
 
Month   Close  Previous  Change   High    Low 
Jul'10  2,420     2,398  Up  22   2,423   2,410 
Aug'10  2,330     2,305  Up  25   2,349   2,325 
Sep'10  2,290     2,270  Up  20   2,310   2,286 
Oct'10  2,275     2,250  Up  25   2,294   2,270 
 
 
  By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;
shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com 
 

I did it again : 1000 Pt within 5 days

Hi traders,

Just want to share my 3rd excellent achievements within this year doing CPO trading. I hope all of you also gains the same profit. This results using my SNIPER TRADING technique which was i developed myself through experience & research.

Thanks

Thursday Trading Tip: I did It again 1000 pt in 5 days

Hi traders,

CPO closed at 2370, the lowest level this year. Bearish sentiment still strong to weigh CPO towards 2200 if supply fundamental, SO & CL no +ve news to push the price up. CPO expecting to pullback correction tomorrow if open > 2290-2295 and close > 2290. But it may downside if open < 2275-2280 and close < 2270. Today sellers were dominating the war. For tomorrow i'm expecting CPO may go to 2250 level if overnight CO & SO in bearish mood. For long term trend CPO still in downside bias towards 2250 and 2200 level.

Just my 2cents...

Happy trading 

DJ Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Down 1.3% On Rising Supply Fears

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended sharply lower Wednesday, backpedaling from earlier gains as investors booked profits amid expectations for improved palm production.

Concerns about the global economic recovery also weighed on prices, trade participants said.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR31 or 1.3% lower at MYR2,270 a metric ton after moving in a MYR2,270-MYR2,303/ton range.

The market was initially buoyed by strength in crude oil prices. But without strong buying support, and with supplies rising in Indonesia and Malaysia--both major global palm oil producers--palm prices quickly gave up gains and slipped into negative territory.

Some trade participants expect prices to come off their lows in the next trading session as "the slew of bearish news and expectations for June output to be higher on month were already factored into today's slide," said a senior trading executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage.

Prices have been battered the past few weeks, declining 7.3% since June 1 due to worries about the strength of the global economic recovery and bearish supply outlooks.

"Though prices may come off their lows, any upside will be limited on fears that palm olein will trade at a higher premium over rival soyoil," said a Malaysia-based exporter.

Trade participants said Malaysia's palm oil output in June probably rose around 5%-10% on month with end-June palm oil inventory levels around 1.70 million tons.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board is expected to issue June palm oil production, stock and export data Monday.

In the cash market, palm olein for July was offered $5 lower at $775/ton, while cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR10 lower at MYR2,390/ton.

CME Group Inc.'s dollar-based CPO futures contract for September wasn't traded in Asia.

Rupiah-denominated September CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange were trading 0.9% lower at IDR6,205 a kilogram at 1015 GMT, with 177 lots done.

The October contract was trading 1.1% lower at IDR6,155/kg with 208 lots changing hands. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons.

Open interest on the BMD was 74,304 lots versus 73,253 lots Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 14,018 lots of CPO were traded versus 14,104 lots Tuesday.

Closing BMD CPO futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: 
 
Month   Close  Previous  Change    High    Low 
Jul'10  2,398     2,398  Unchanged 2,402   2,390 
Aug'10  2,305     2,330  Down 25   2,334   2,305 
Sep'10  2,270     2,301  Down 31   2,303   2,270 
Oct'10  2,250     2,282  Down 32   2,287   2,250 
 
 
  -By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;
shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com 

DJ MARKET TALK: BMD CPO Futures Called To Open MYR5-MYR15 Higher

[Dow Jones] BMD CPO futures tipped to extend gains, may open MYR5-MYR15 higher crude gains in Asia, short covering; "the sharp fall in prices has attracted fresh buying interest, with bargain hunting around MYR2,290/ton," says Kuala Lumpur-based broker; but says upside likely capped around MYR2,310/ton as stronger ringgit to weigh; dollar last MYR3.2030 vs MYR3.2050 late yesterday. Benchmark September contract ended MYR11 higher at MYR2,301/ton yesterday, after touching MYR2,277/ton intraday, its lowest since Nov. 13. (shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com)


Call us in Kuala Lumpur: +(603) 2026 1233

Wednesday Trading Tips: Woopsss CPO try to test 2300 again

Hi traders,

CPO closed 2301 today...
As expected, today CPO bounced back from it lowest level. It may continue upside if open>2300 and close >2310. But may downside if open <2295-2280 and close <2280. However major trend still downside bias with possible correction to pullback. Take your position nicely......

Just my 2cents.....

Happy trading.... 

DJ Asian Crude Palm Oil Rebounds, Ends Losing Streak On Crude

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures pared recent losses to end higher for the first time in seven sessions Tuesday on bargain hunting and crude oil's rise above $72 a barrel in Asia, market participants said.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR11 higher at MYR2,301 a metric ton after tumbling to an intraday low of MYR2,277/ton, its lowest level since Nov. 13.

August crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 88 cents higher at $73.02/bbl on Globex at 1024 GMT.

Prices have been battered the past few weeks, declining 6.7% since June 1 due to worries about the strength of the global economic recovery, and bearish supply sentiment hadn't helped either as palm oil output is expected to rise in the second half.

Steady progress in India's monsoon rains, the main source of irrigation for its domestic crops, may boost its domestic output and "India probably won't have to step up purchases of vegetable oils significantly, which is bearish for palm prices," said a Malaysia-based broker.

Monsoon rains have covered the whole of India Tuesday, improving crop sowing prospects and easing worries about output and food inflation.

A more than two-week halt in the monsoon's progress raised concerns recently that the delay would hurt summer-sown crops for a second straight year.

"I don't expect palm prices to rise much in the next trading session as inventory levels in Malaysia and Indonesia have gone up," said a Singapore-based trading executive.

Plantation company executives and analysts said palm production is expected to rise during the July-September period and they expect a further dip in prices.

The fall in prices, however, raised hopes that palm olein could swing back to a discount over soyoil after trading at a premium the past two months over the rival oil.

Palm oil products have lost market share this year as soyoil prices tumbled on strong supply prospects from South American harvests. Palm olein was trading at a $20/ton premium to soyoil recently, compared with a discount of more than $100/ton in December.

In the cash market, palm olein for October/November/December was traded at $732.50/ton, free on board Malaysian ports, said a physical market broker based in Singapore.

Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered unchanged at MYR2,400/ton

CME Group Inc.'s dollar-based CPO futures contract for September was offered $3 lower at $720/ton in Asia.

Rupiah-denominated September CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange were trading 0.6% lower at IDR6,215 a kilogram at 1026 GMT, with 141 lots done.

The October contract was trading 0.7% lower at IDR6,135/kg with 204 lots changing hands. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons.

Open interest on the BMD was 73,253 lots versus 72,771 lots Monday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 14,104 lots of CPO were traded versus 11,214 lots Monday.

Closing BMD CPO futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: 
 
Month   Close  Previous  Change    High    Low 
Jul'10  2,397     2,380  Up  17    2,397   2,340 
Aug'10  2,330     2,311  Up  19    2,336   2,308 
Sep'10  2,301     2,290  Up  11    2,306   2,277 
Oct'10  2,282     2,282  Unchanged 2,290   2,264 
 
 
  -By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;
shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com 

Tuesday Trading Tip

Hi traders,

Bye...bye 2300......It is out of my expectations when CPO close at 2290 yesterday. Today i'm expecting CPO will downtrend as the supply fundamental weigh. Maybe temporary uptrend may develop today, then down again.

Just my 2cents

Happy Trading

DJ UPDATE: Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Down On Bearish Fundamentals

By Shie-Lynn Lim

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange fell 1.9% to a fresh eight-month low Monday due to concerns that China, a major vegetable oil consumer, may buy less palm oil amid an economic slowdown.

Prices also fell as rising palm supplies in the next few months may push inventory levels higher as export demand remained sluggish, trade participants said.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR45 or 1.9% lower at MYR2,290 a metric ton after moving in a MYR2,290-MYR2,338 range.

"Technical charts and supply fundamentals suggest that prices may extend losses in the next trading session," said a senior trading executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage.

Palm production is rising in the July-September period and analysts said the July figure may rise as much as 10% on month. They said June output probably rose 5%-7%.

Traders said the fall in palm prices may help palm products regain market share as palm's premium had been shifting buyers to cheaper soyoil.

More weakness in prices is likely, due to the seasonal rise in palm oil supply, and a sharp fall in prices could bring palm olein back at a discount to soyoil after trading at a premium the past two months, Oil World's analyst and co-editor Siegfried Falk said in an interview recently.

He also said palm may develop a small price discount in the coming weeks.

In the cash market, palm olein for October/November/December was traded at $745/ton free on board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based trading executive.

Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR40 lower at MYR2,400/ton

CME Group Inc.'s dollar-based CPO futures contract for September wasn't traded in Asia, while rupiah-denominated September CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange were trading 0.3% lower at IDR6,250 a kilogram at 1020 GMT, with 87 lots done.

The October contract was trading 0.9% lower at IDR6,180/kg with 174 lots changing hands. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons.

Open interest on the BMD was 72,771 lots versus 72,093 lots Friday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 11,214 lots of CPO were traded versus 8,941 lots Friday.

Closing BMD CPO futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: 
 
Month   Close  Previous  Change   High    Low 
Jul'10  2,380     2,406  Down 26  2,401   2,380 
Aug'10  2,317     2,358  Down 41  2,359   2,311 
Sep'10  2,290     2,335  Down 45  2,338   2,290 
Oct'10  2,282     2,322  Down 40  2,325   2,282 
 
 
  -By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;
shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com 

DJ Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends 1.9% Lower On Bearish Fundamentals

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange fell 1.9% to a fresh eight-month low Monday due to concerns that China, a major vegetable oil consumer, may buy less palm oil amid an economic slowdown.

Prices also fell as rising palm supplies in the next few months may push inventory levels higher as export demand remained sluggish, trade participants said.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR45 or 1.9% lower at MYR2,290 a metric ton after moving in a MYR2,290-MYR2,338 range.

"Technical charts and supply fundamentals suggest that prices may extend losses in the next trading session," said a senior trading executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage.



-By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233;
shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com

DJ MARKET TALK: BMD CPO Futures At 8-Month Low; May Fall More

[Dow Jones] BMD CPO futures fall as much as 0.5% to 8-month intraday low, amid concerns China's economy may be losing steam, damping sentiment. Ringgit advanced to MYR3.2170, making palm oil more expensive for palm refiners, pressuring prices, says Malaysia-based exporter; adds prices may fall further on bearish sentiment, supply fundamentals. Benchmark September contract trading 0.5% lower midday at MYR2,324/ton. (shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com)


Call us in Kuala Lumpur: +(603) 2026 1233

Monday Trading Tip

Hi Traders,

Last Friday CPO has opened at 2342 and closed at 2335. Its goes down to lowest level at 2328 and highest at 2346. CPO tend to further down if  NYMEX crude oil & CBOT soybean oil still in the bearish mood. However CPO may temporary go up if open >2340-2342 and close >2346. If open <2335-2330 and close <2330 the CPO may further downside bias. Please note the CPO may pullback since the weekly & daily chart had near to oversold level....  

Just my 2cents....

Thanks