Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended little changed Thursday after moving both ways in volatile trade amid profit-taking and liquidation of positions ahead of the long weekend, trade participants said.
CPO futures opened up in the early session but gave up early gains, tumbling below MYR2,600 a metric ton despite assurances by the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke that interest rates may remain low for a while.
The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR5 higher at MYR2,596 after moving in a MYR2,580-MYR2,615/ton range. The markets will be closed for a national holiday Friday.
A likely drawdown in palm inventories despite lower palm oil shipments prevented a significant fall in prices, as output is expected to be lower in February and March due to dry weather and the ongoing oil palm replanting program, traders and analysts said.
“Lower output and inventories may keep CPO futures steady at MYR2,550-MYR2,650/ton next week,” said a Kuala Lumpur-based trading executive.
Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services put Feb. 1-25 palm oil exports at 1.09 million tons, down 10% on month. Another surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., estimated exports declined 8.9% to 1.10 million tons.
Cargo surveyors put palm oil shipments at 1.21 million tons for the same period in January.
In Indonesia, PT KPB Nusantara, a unit of PT Perkebunan Nusantara, said it sold 1,500 tons of CPO offered in a government auction Thursday.
But a further 500 tons remained unsold, as the bids were lower than its offer price of IDR7462 a kilogram.
In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June traded at $795/ton, July/August/September traded at $795/ton, said a Singapore-based trading executive.
Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR5 lower at MYR2,605/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 82,981 lots Thursday, down from 83,180 lots Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
Some 17,856 lots of CPO were traded versus 11,714 lots Wednesday.
Closing BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT:
Month Close Previous Change High Low
Mar 2010 2,595 2,600 Down 05 2,619 2,590
Apr 2010 2,590 2,590 Unchanged 2,620 2,589
May 2010 2,595 2,590 Up 05 2,615 2,580
Jun 2010 2,579 2,580 Down 01 2,604 2,572
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 25, 2010 05:54 ET (10:54 GMT
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Showing posts with label Bursa Malaysia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bursa Malaysia. Show all posts
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Ringgit continue to end lower
THE ringgit slid for the second consecutive day yesterday on continuous interest in the US dollar, a dealer said.
At 5pm, the ringgit was at 3.4120/4150 compared with Thursday close of 3.4000/4030.
The dealer said the recent unexpected move by the US Federal Reserve to lift interest rates for emergency loans buoyed demand for the greenback and made riskier currencies less attractive.
The further fall on Bursa Malaysia also eroded demand for the local unit. The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index lost 1.33 points to 1,257.67 as investors reduced their holdings ahead of the weekend.
"People were reluctant to take heavy positions amid the weakness in local and regional stock markets," the dealer said.
The local currency also traded lower against the Singapore dollar at 2.4103/4146 from 2.4093/4136 on Thursday.
However, it rose against the Japanese yen to 3.7176/7233 from 3.7396/7433, the British pound to 5.2538/2591 from 5.3088/3145 and the euro to 4.6038/6096 from 4.6101/6148.
INTERBANK RATES
SHORT-TERM interbank rates closed steady yesterday as Bank Negara Malaysia actively intervened, issuing several money market tenders to keep in check excess liquidity in the system, dealers said.
The overnight rate was quoted at 2.0 per cent, while the one-week, two-week and three-week rates hovered around 2.02 and 2.05 per cent.
Bank Negara this morning carried out five conventional tenders, three Al-Wadiah tenders, a repo tender as well as a Commodity Murabahah Programme tender to offset the liquidity surplus.
As a result, the excess in the conventional system was eased to RM25.01 billion from RM34.74 billion estimated earlier, while the surplus in the Islamic system reduced to RM6.99 billion from RM8.78 billion.
In late trading yesterday, the central bank also called tenders to borrow RM25 billion from the conventional operations and another RM5.2 billion from the Islamic funds, both of three-day money.
KLIBOR
THE three-month Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate (KLIBOR) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower yesterday.
The March 2010 contract declined 19 ticks to 97.58 with nine lots traded.
At 11am fixing, the underlying three-month KLIBOR was at 2.24 per cent. Meanwhile, the five-year Malaysian Government Securities futures closed untraded. - Bernama
At 5pm, the ringgit was at 3.4120/4150 compared with Thursday close of 3.4000/4030.
The dealer said the recent unexpected move by the US Federal Reserve to lift interest rates for emergency loans buoyed demand for the greenback and made riskier currencies less attractive.
"People were reluctant to take heavy positions amid the weakness in local and regional stock markets," the dealer said.
The local currency also traded lower against the Singapore dollar at 2.4103/4146 from 2.4093/4136 on Thursday.
However, it rose against the Japanese yen to 3.7176/7233 from 3.7396/7433, the British pound to 5.2538/2591 from 5.3088/3145 and the euro to 4.6038/6096 from 4.6101/6148.
INTERBANK RATES
SHORT-TERM interbank rates closed steady yesterday as Bank Negara Malaysia actively intervened, issuing several money market tenders to keep in check excess liquidity in the system, dealers said.
The overnight rate was quoted at 2.0 per cent, while the one-week, two-week and three-week rates hovered around 2.02 and 2.05 per cent.
Bank Negara this morning carried out five conventional tenders, three Al-Wadiah tenders, a repo tender as well as a Commodity Murabahah Programme tender to offset the liquidity surplus.
As a result, the excess in the conventional system was eased to RM25.01 billion from RM34.74 billion estimated earlier, while the surplus in the Islamic system reduced to RM6.99 billion from RM8.78 billion.
In late trading yesterday, the central bank also called tenders to borrow RM25 billion from the conventional operations and another RM5.2 billion from the Islamic funds, both of three-day money.
KLIBOR
THE three-month Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate (KLIBOR) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower yesterday.
The March 2010 contract declined 19 ticks to 97.58 with nine lots traded.
At 11am fixing, the underlying three-month KLIBOR was at 2.24 per cent. Meanwhile, the five-year Malaysian Government Securities futures closed untraded. - Bernama
Crude Palm Oil Ends Down After Fed Rate Move; More Downside Likely
Feb 19 Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Friday after the U.S Federal Reserve's decision to raise its discount rate pushed the dollar higher. ...
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Friday after the U.S Federal Reserve's decision to raise its discount rate pushed the dollar higher.
But commodity prices in Asia, including palm oil, are still vulnerable to further declines next week, when volume is expected to pick up, trade participants said.
The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR4 lower at MYR2,596 a metric ton, with 11,910 lots traded, well below average volume on the BMD of 14,000-16,000 lots.
"The move by the Fed may lead to temporary selling pressure on the BMD in the next trading session," said a trading executive from Jakarta. "CPO futures may ease to around MYR2,500-MYR2,550 next week, when the Chinese traders return after a long break."
Crude oil and soyoil futures remained in negative territory in Asian trade, preventing a sustained rise in palm oil prices, which briefly spiked above the MYR2,600 psychological level to an intraday high of MYR2,609/ton.
Light, sweet crude oil for March delivery reached an intraday high of $79.29 Thursday, buoyed by U.S. inventory data that showed distillate stocks fell more than expected, but then tumbled to below $78 a barrel during Asian trading.
March soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 29 points lower at 38.41 cents a pound by the end of trade on the BMD.
Palm oil futures held above MYR2,550 despite a sharp fall in other commodities because "supply-demand fundamentals are still rather supportive," a Singapore-based trading executive said.
"Output in February and March is expected to fall, and this may reduce Malaysia's palm oil inventories, which is bullish for palm prices," he said.
Palm oil output in January declined 13% to 1.32 million tons, the lowest level in nine months, trimming palm inventories to 2.0 million tons from 2.24 million tons in December, based on recent data from the government-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board.
In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June delivery traded at $790/ton, $792.50/ton and $795/ton a Singapore-based trader said.
Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered at MYR2,610/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 77,109 lots Friday, down from 81,347 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
Closing BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT:
Month Close Previous Change High Low
Mar 2010 2,610 2,611 Down 01 2,610 2,585
Apr 2010 2,599 2,604 Down 05 2,610 2,580
May 2010 2,596 2,600 Down 04 2,609 2,577
Jun 2010 2,590 2,600 Down 10 2,598 2,571
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Crude Palm Oil Ends Up On Higher-Than-Expected Exports
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended higher Wednesday on the back of higher-than-expected exports and higher crude oil futures, said trade participants.
The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR48 higher at MYR2,628 a metric ton, after trading in a MYR2,606-MYR2,628/ton range.
Cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports in the Feb. 1-15 period fell 5.5% from a month earlier to 607,660 tons.
However, the estimates were higher than market expectations of around 570,000 tons.
Another cargo surveyor, Intertek Agri Services, Tuesday estimated the figure at 565,114 tons, a decrease of 16% on month.
"The market is expecting exports to fall from mid-February and through to March. But production is also expected to fall, probably by around 10%, so the impact of lower exports would be minimal especially if the fall is within expectations," said a Singapore-based trader.
Another Singapore-based trader said the SGS estimates were surprising as exports didn't fall as much as expected and supported CPO prices in a market lacking fresh local cues.
The lack of fresh local cues due to the closure of several Asian markets for the Lunar New Year holiday prompted sluggish, rangebound trade for most of the day.
"Trading activity might pick up only next week when Chinese buyers re-enter the market," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.
Higher crude oil futures during Asian trading hours also supported CPO prices. At the end of trade on the BMD, crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up $0.26 at $75.94 a barrel.
In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June traded at $800/ton, said a Singapore-based trader.
Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR60 higher at MYR2,650/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 79,210 lots last trade Friday, up from 78,551 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
Some 14,161 lots of CPO were traded versus 8,789 lots Friday.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Post- Chinese New Year rally on Bursa Likely
Look for buying opportunities on dips in rubber glove makers Adventa, IRCB, Latexx and Supermax, while Dialog and Kencana should outperform in the medium term, says a research head
China's low inflation sent a signal that liquidity tightening may not be aggressive amid weak signs of demand recovery from the US, the EU and Japan. Although China's exports expanded 20 per cent year-on-year (yoy) in January on strong demand from developing economies, the strength of recovery may not be sustainable if consumer demand from Western countries and Japan does not improve.
Despite the current "noise level", it is noteworthy to acknowledge that global economic conditions have improved and the current worries are more focused on the impact of counteracting measures to prevent economic overheating and inflationary pressures in the not distant future than the absence of growth.
Being the world's largest economy, actions taken by the US will be closely watched and this column believes that liquidity tightening measures like raising funds rate will be the last thing on the cards and may not happen until this July or later as the housing and job markets are still weak. Data on housing starts and building permits that will be released tomorrow is expected to result in a mixed reaction on current housing market conditions.
In the interim period, the Federal Reserve may choose to not extend its asset buyback programme that expires in March, introduce reverse repos and pay interest on reserves to limit currency circulation in the system. Perhaps, investors should monitor closely the dwindling credit spread between corporate and government debt, which is an important indicator of the private sector's willingness to take risk and pick up the baton of growth from the public sector.
Locally, no major economic indicators are due for announcement this week, except for foreign reserve numbers this Friday. Nonetheless, in the absence of any dampeners and usual pick-up in activities post CNY, investors are expected to drive up the benchmark index in the next seven trading days before the February month ends.
Fundamentally, good corporate earnings for the last October-to-December period, where the announcements will be concluded by this month-end, will be supportive of the index expansion and technical indicators, hovering in oversold territories, are pointing in the same direction as well.
Technical outlook
Spot month January KLCI futures contract traded on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Bhd rose 3.50 points, or 0.3 per cent, week-on-week to close at 1,247, representing a 6.4-point discount to the cash index, compared with the 4.4-point discount the previous week.
Bursa Malaysia shares dipped sharply last Monday, with banks leading falls on concern China's credit tightening measures will adversely impact economic growth in the region.
Overnight losses in the US with the Dow Jones average sinking below 10,000 on concern over the fiscal stability of Greece, Portugal and Spain further depressed sentiment the next day, but speculation of an UE bailout for Greece sparked a regional rebound in the afternoon and lifted stocks off earlier lows.
Stocks extended rebound on Wednesday, encouraged by gains in Hong Kong and China due to strong exports data and increasing hopes the EU will bailout Greece. The market recouped further ground the next day with regional markets rising further on improving sentiment from slower inflation and increase in loan growth in China and as Australian jobs growth slowed.
The KLCI peaked at a high of 1,249.42 on Thursday's close and a low of 1,224.37 on Tuesday in the early morning trading session. The trading range last week was at 25.05 points, compared with the 20.75-point range the previous week.
The FBM-EMAS Index rose 30.80 points, or 0.37 per cent, last week to close at 8,436.33, while the FBM-Small Cap Index fell 49.57 points or 0.47 per cent to 10,443.76.
The daily slow stochastics indicator for the KLCI triggered another buy signal from the oversold zone following last Friday's strength (Chart 1), while the weekly indicator has fallen to the lower neutral zone.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has recovered for a more positive reading at 41.40, while the 14-week RSI le-velled off to register a neutral reading at 56.84.
Meantime, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trend indicator has also leveled off for a less negative reading, but the weekly MACD continued its bearish journey southwards. As for the 14-day Directional Movement Index (DMI) trend indicator, the +DI and -DI lines have contracted on a levelling ADX line with a reading below 25, signalling a non-trending mode.
Conclusion
Technical momentum indicators for KLCI has improved significantly following last week's dip and rebound from oversold levels, highlighted by a daily slow stochastics buy signal, suggesting more positive sentiment this week as market players return from the long Chinese New Year break.
The sighting of a bullish "hammer" candle on the weekly chart adds weight to our bullish view that the local market would stage a strong comeback up to the end of the month. Note that the month of February has ended positive in 14 of the past 20 years, with an average gain of 3.8 per cent. The further improvement in global stock markets will provide a booster to sentiment locally, with investors likely to closely follow the performance of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets.
As for the KLCI, the bullish breakout above 1,249, the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of 1,154 to 1308, will enhance upside initially to 1,256, the 38.2 per cent FR of the sell down from 1,308 high to recent pivot low of 1,224, with stronger hurdles likely at the 100-day and 50-day moving averages, currently at 1,260 and 1,273. Immediate support is upgraded further to 1,240, with 1,231, 1,224 and 1,213 as progressively stronger support platforms.
Chart-wise, banking stocks CIMB, Maybank and Public Bank are still preferred after their recent profit-taking corrections which are healthy to encourage more buying from sidelined investors. Plantation counters IOI Corp and Sime Darby are also better bargains at current levels.
On the lower-liner space, look for buying opportunities on dips in rubber glove makers Adventa, IRCB, Latexx and Supermax, while Dialog and Kencana should outperform in the medium term.
The local stock market suffered a third week of sell-off initially triggered by heightened concern over the potential sovereign debt default of some European countries, dragging the benchmark index to a four-month low, before buyers returned to prop up prices on signs other EU countries are likely to bailout Greece and control the large budget deficit.
The blue-chip benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) recovered 5.49 points, or 0.44 per cent, last week to settle at 1,253.39, contributed by gains on IOI Corp (+12 sen), Axiata (+8 sen), Maybank (+9 sen), AMMB (+16 sen) and Tenaga (+9 sen) . Daily average traded volume and value slowed further to 673 million shares worth RM1.11 billion, compared with the 883.2 million shares and RM1.25 billion average the previous week.
Global markets that were stifled by worries over Greece's debt crisis, liquidity tightening in China and the US government's exit strategies recovered slightly as the week draws to a close. Main reasons for clawing back some of the earlier losses were the European Union leaders' affirmation in rescuing Greece, lower than expected China's inflation and lower-than-estimated US jobless claims.
Hopes of a solution to Greek's fiscal woes, despite lack of details, assuaged investors that similar commitment from EU could be forthcoming if Spain and Portugal face trouble.
Despite the current "noise level", it is noteworthy to acknowledge that global economic conditions have improved and the current worries are more focused on the impact of counteracting measures to prevent economic overheating and inflationary pressures in the not distant future than the absence of growth.
Being the world's largest economy, actions taken by the US will be closely watched and this column believes that liquidity tightening measures like raising funds rate will be the last thing on the cards and may not happen until this July or later as the housing and job markets are still weak. Data on housing starts and building permits that will be released tomorrow is expected to result in a mixed reaction on current housing market conditions.
In the interim period, the Federal Reserve may choose to not extend its asset buyback programme that expires in March, introduce reverse repos and pay interest on reserves to limit currency circulation in the system. Perhaps, investors should monitor closely the dwindling credit spread between corporate and government debt, which is an important indicator of the private sector's willingness to take risk and pick up the baton of growth from the public sector.
Locally, no major economic indicators are due for announcement this week, except for foreign reserve numbers this Friday. Nonetheless, in the absence of any dampeners and usual pick-up in activities post CNY, investors are expected to drive up the benchmark index in the next seven trading days before the February month ends.
Fundamentally, good corporate earnings for the last October-to-December period, where the announcements will be concluded by this month-end, will be supportive of the index expansion and technical indicators, hovering in oversold territories, are pointing in the same direction as well.
Technical outlook
Spot month January KLCI futures contract traded on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Bhd rose 3.50 points, or 0.3 per cent, week-on-week to close at 1,247, representing a 6.4-point discount to the cash index, compared with the 4.4-point discount the previous week.
Bursa Malaysia shares dipped sharply last Monday, with banks leading falls on concern China's credit tightening measures will adversely impact economic growth in the region.
Overnight losses in the US with the Dow Jones average sinking below 10,000 on concern over the fiscal stability of Greece, Portugal and Spain further depressed sentiment the next day, but speculation of an UE bailout for Greece sparked a regional rebound in the afternoon and lifted stocks off earlier lows.
Stocks extended rebound on Wednesday, encouraged by gains in Hong Kong and China due to strong exports data and increasing hopes the EU will bailout Greece. The market recouped further ground the next day with regional markets rising further on improving sentiment from slower inflation and increase in loan growth in China and as Australian jobs growth slowed.
The KLCI peaked at a high of 1,249.42 on Thursday's close and a low of 1,224.37 on Tuesday in the early morning trading session. The trading range last week was at 25.05 points, compared with the 20.75-point range the previous week.
The FBM-EMAS Index rose 30.80 points, or 0.37 per cent, last week to close at 8,436.33, while the FBM-Small Cap Index fell 49.57 points or 0.47 per cent to 10,443.76.
The daily slow stochastics indicator for the KLCI triggered another buy signal from the oversold zone following last Friday's strength (Chart 1), while the weekly indicator has fallen to the lower neutral zone.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has recovered for a more positive reading at 41.40, while the 14-week RSI le-velled off to register a neutral reading at 56.84.
Meantime, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trend indicator has also leveled off for a less negative reading, but the weekly MACD continued its bearish journey southwards. As for the 14-day Directional Movement Index (DMI) trend indicator, the +DI and -DI lines have contracted on a levelling ADX line with a reading below 25, signalling a non-trending mode.
Conclusion
Technical momentum indicators for KLCI has improved significantly following last week's dip and rebound from oversold levels, highlighted by a daily slow stochastics buy signal, suggesting more positive sentiment this week as market players return from the long Chinese New Year break.
The sighting of a bullish "hammer" candle on the weekly chart adds weight to our bullish view that the local market would stage a strong comeback up to the end of the month. Note that the month of February has ended positive in 14 of the past 20 years, with an average gain of 3.8 per cent. The further improvement in global stock markets will provide a booster to sentiment locally, with investors likely to closely follow the performance of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets.
As for the KLCI, the bullish breakout above 1,249, the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of 1,154 to 1308, will enhance upside initially to 1,256, the 38.2 per cent FR of the sell down from 1,308 high to recent pivot low of 1,224, with stronger hurdles likely at the 100-day and 50-day moving averages, currently at 1,260 and 1,273. Immediate support is upgraded further to 1,240, with 1,231, 1,224 and 1,213 as progressively stronger support platforms.
Chart-wise, banking stocks CIMB, Maybank and Public Bank are still preferred after their recent profit-taking corrections which are healthy to encourage more buying from sidelined investors. Plantation counters IOI Corp and Sime Darby are also better bargains at current levels.
On the lower-liner space, look for buying opportunities on dips in rubber glove makers Adventa, IRCB, Latexx and Supermax, while Dialog and Kencana should outperform in the medium term.
The subject expressed above is based on technical analysis and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)