ADAKAH HARGA FCPO AKAN KEMBALI NAIK?

Salam para traders.....

Pagi ni bermain2 dibenak saya adakah CPO akan naik walaupun beberapa F.A indikator menunjukkan ramalan positif & negatif. Malam tadi harga NYMEX CRUDE OIL MAR 2010 telah naik mencecah paras 80/bbl, manakala harga CBOT SOYOIL MAR 2010 mengalami kejatuhan ke paras 38.52. Dollar pula mengukuh berbanding ringgit....

F.A indikator manakah yang lebih dominan mempengaruhi turun naik harga FCPO? Atau ada sesuatu disebalik urusniaga pasaran hadapan FCPO ini?

Tetapi saya berpendapat walauapapun F.A menunjukkan pelbagai petunjuk pasaran CPO samada naik atau turun, yang penting T.A tidak pernah menipu kita. Cuma bile kita perlu masuk position and keluar position.

Kepada para traders yang mempunyai pengalaman, sila beri pendapat anda untuk dikongsi bersama......

Sekian

Selamat berhujung minggu.......

Ringgit continue to end lower

THE ringgit slid for the second consecutive day yesterday on continuous interest in the US dollar, a dealer said.

At 5pm, the ringgit was at 3.4120/4150 compared with Thursday close of 3.4000/4030.

The dealer said the recent unexpected move by the US Federal Reserve to lift interest rates for emergency loans buoyed demand for the greenback and made riskier currencies less attractive.
The further fall on Bursa Malaysia also eroded demand for the local unit. The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index lost 1.33 points to 1,257.67 as investors reduced their holdings ahead of the weekend.

"People were reluctant to take heavy positions amid the weakness in local and regional stock markets," the dealer said.

The local currency also traded lower against the Singapore dollar at 2.4103/4146 from 2.4093/4136 on Thursday.

However, it rose against the Japanese yen to 3.7176/7233 from 3.7396/7433, the British pound to 5.2538/2591 from 5.3088/3145 and the euro to 4.6038/6096 from 4.6101/6148.


INTERBANK RATES

SHORT-TERM interbank rates closed steady yesterday as Bank Negara Malaysia actively intervened, issuing several money market tenders to keep in check excess liquidity in the system, dealers said.

The overnight rate was quoted at 2.0 per cent, while the one-week, two-week and three-week rates hovered around 2.02 and 2.05 per cent.

Bank Negara this morning carried out five conventional tenders, three Al-Wadiah tenders, a repo tender as well as a Commodity Murabahah Programme tender to offset the liquidity surplus.

As a result, the excess in the conventional system was eased to RM25.01 billion from RM34.74 billion estimated earlier, while the surplus in the Islamic system reduced to RM6.99 billion from RM8.78 billion.

In late trading yesterday, the central bank also called tenders to borrow RM25 billion from the conventional operations and another RM5.2 billion from the Islamic funds, both of three-day money.


KLIBOR

THE three-month Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate (KLIBOR) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower yesterday.

The March 2010 contract declined 19 ticks to 97.58 with nine lots traded.

At 11am fixing, the underlying three-month KLIBOR was at 2.24 per cent. Meanwhile, the five-year Malaysian Government Securities futures closed untraded. - Bernama

Crude Palm Oil Ends Down After Fed Rate Move; More Downside Likely

Feb 19 Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Friday after the U.S Federal Reserve's decision to raise its discount rate pushed the dollar higher. ...

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Friday after the U.S Federal Reserve's decision to raise its discount rate pushed the dollar higher.

But commodity prices in Asia, including palm oil, are still vulnerable to further declines next week, when volume is expected to pick up, trade participants said.

The benchmark May CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR4 lower at MYR2,596 a metric ton, with 11,910 lots traded, well below average volume on the BMD of 14,000-16,000 lots.

"The move by the Fed may lead to temporary selling pressure on the BMD in the next trading session," said a trading executive from Jakarta. "CPO futures may ease to around MYR2,500-MYR2,550 next week, when the Chinese traders return after a long break."

Crude oil and soyoil futures remained in negative territory in Asian trade, preventing a sustained rise in palm oil prices, which briefly spiked above the MYR2,600 psychological level to an intraday high of MYR2,609/ton.

Light, sweet crude oil for March delivery reached an intraday high of $79.29 Thursday, buoyed by U.S. inventory data that showed distillate stocks fell more than expected, but then tumbled to below $78 a barrel during Asian trading.

March soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 29 points lower at 38.41 cents a pound by the end of trade on the BMD.

Palm oil futures held above MYR2,550 despite a sharp fall in other commodities because "supply-demand fundamentals are still rather supportive," a Singapore-based trading executive said.

"Output in February and March is expected to fall, and this may reduce Malaysia's palm oil inventories, which is bullish for palm prices," he said.

Palm oil output in January declined 13% to 1.32 million tons, the lowest level in nine months, trimming palm inventories to 2.0 million tons from 2.24 million tons in December, based on recent data from the government-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June delivery traded at $790/ton, $792.50/ton and $795/ton a Singapore-based trader said.

Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered at MYR2,610/ton.

Open interest on the BMD was 77,109 lots Friday, down from 81,347 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

Closing BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT:

Month      Close    Previous   Change    High    Low
Mar 2010   2,610    2,611      Down 01   2,610   2,585
Apr 2010   2,599    2,604      Down 05   2,610   2,580
May 2010   2,596    2,600      Down 04   2,609   2,577
Jun 2010   2,590    2,600      Down 10   2,598   2,571