Assalamualaikum wbt..
Tahun 2013 hampir melabuhkan tirainya. Kini tahun 2014 menjelang tiba.....
Sebagai seorang pedagang FCPO adakah matlamat kita untuk membuat keuntungan tahun 2013 telah tercapai? atau sebaliknya.
Jika anda telah berjaya membuat keuntungan saya ucapkan 'TAHNIAH'. Terus kekalkan keuntungan anda bagi tahun 2014. Pertingkatkan usaha anda bagi mencapai matlamat bagi tahun hadapan....
Bagaimana pula bagi anda yang mengalami kerugian dalam urusniaga?
Saya ucapkan "TAHNIAH" kerana anda seorang yang berani mengharungi gelombang dan badai dalam bidang ini. Jangan jadikan kerugian anda satu penghalang untuk terus mencari rezeki. "JANGAN BERPUTUS ASA" kerugian bukan titik noktah. Jadikan ia pembakar semangat untuk memahami, menimba dan memperhalusi selok belok urusniaga.
Apa yang perlu ANDA lakukan?
Perkara pokok yang mesti kita lakukan adalah menyemak kembali "jurnal urusniaga 2013".Kaji dan buat analisa dimana kesilapan dan kecuaian.
Adakah kita mematuhi sistem urusniaga yang dirancang atau sebaliknya?
Adakah kita membuat urusniaga berdasarkan emosi?
Adakah kita sekadar mengikut tip dari pedagang lain tanpa mengkaji?
Adakah kita melakukan "money management" yang betul?
Adakah sistem urusniaga yang kita lakukan bersesuaian dengan kemampuan kita?
dll.....
Setelah kesilapan dikenalpasti anda perlu perbaiki dan atasi secepat yang mungkin...
-Sekian-
"Selamat Maju Jaya"
Monday, December 30, 2013
Saturday, December 14, 2013
PRESTASI KEUNTUNGAN FCPO TAHUN 2013
Assalamualaikum,
Apa khabar rakan-rakan trader semua? Semoga berada dalam keadaan sihat dan bahagia. Sekian lama saya tidak kemaskini blog jutawansawit dan sukacita saya kongsikan prestasi FCPO 2013 bermula January 2013 hingga Oktober 2013. Pendedahan ini bukan bertujuan untuk menunjuk tetapi ingin memberi tahu bahawa FCPO trading boleh menjana pendapatan yang memuaskan jika kita berusaha dan menggunakan teknik/sistem yang betul. Tidak kira sistem apa yang kita gunakan, tetapi ia perlulah berakhir dengan keuntungan walaupun terdapat kerugian yang tidak dapat dielakkan.
Urusniaga FCPO ibarat kita menjalankan perniagaan sendiri. Adakala kita untung dan rugi. Tetapi kerugian yang kita alami adalah dalam kawalan dan kurang risiko. Sebagai "businessman" kita perlu tahu selok-belok urusniaga bagi meminimakan kerugian dan memaksimakan keuntungan.
Semoga apa yang saya sampaikan disini dapat membakar semangat rakan-rakan semua untuk maju dalam urusniaga FCPO.
Sekian
-SELAMAT MAJU JAYA-
** Sila rujuk http://cpotradejournal.blogspot.com/ untuk malumat entry terperinci,
Apa khabar rakan-rakan trader semua? Semoga berada dalam keadaan sihat dan bahagia. Sekian lama saya tidak kemaskini blog jutawansawit dan sukacita saya kongsikan prestasi FCPO 2013 bermula January 2013 hingga Oktober 2013. Pendedahan ini bukan bertujuan untuk menunjuk tetapi ingin memberi tahu bahawa FCPO trading boleh menjana pendapatan yang memuaskan jika kita berusaha dan menggunakan teknik/sistem yang betul. Tidak kira sistem apa yang kita gunakan, tetapi ia perlulah berakhir dengan keuntungan walaupun terdapat kerugian yang tidak dapat dielakkan.
Urusniaga FCPO ibarat kita menjalankan perniagaan sendiri. Adakala kita untung dan rugi. Tetapi kerugian yang kita alami adalah dalam kawalan dan kurang risiko. Sebagai "businessman" kita perlu tahu selok-belok urusniaga bagi meminimakan kerugian dan memaksimakan keuntungan.
Semoga apa yang saya sampaikan disini dapat membakar semangat rakan-rakan semua untuk maju dalam urusniaga FCPO.
Sekian
-SELAMAT MAJU JAYA-
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Monday, February 18, 2013
Market Intelligence Crude Palm Oil 15th February, 2013
In domestic market CPO nudged higher tracking firm global cues. Spot market demand also improved which supported the up trend. Traders however remained cautious as stockpiles are still high. India's veg oil imports increased drastically in January and this may pressurize prices in the log run. Palm Oil prices are also supported by its discount to Soy Oil which boosted demand.
CPO edged higher in the opening trade in international market supported by improving export demand in the first 15 days of February. The numbers suggest that Malaysia's new export tax structure has helped to boost shipments as Malaysian exporters enjoy tax advantage over Indonesia. Cargo surveyors said exports surged mainly due to an up tick in outbound sales to major Palm Oil buyers, China and the European Union.
Prices eased from elevated levels in futures market soon after Malaysia's announcement came that it will raise export taxes on Crude Palm Oil shipments in March. In a circular issued on Friday Malaysia reported that it will set CPO export duties at 4.5% in March after two consecutive months of no duties that boosted crude shipments from Malaysia and helped to ease stockpiles. Crude Palm Oil witnessed a slight uptrend this year after falling heavily last year amid speculation that holdings will drop as exports gain and supply shrinks.
Malaysia's CPO exports in March are likely to be much lower due to higher tax rate and Indian importers have bought quite a fair bit in January. Palm oil port stocks at Indian ports are also filing up and therefore buying may slow down soon. But at the same time buying from China may start buying again from next week after markets open after long new year holidays.
Palm Oil shipments from Indonesia, may decline to the lowest level in four months in February as more buyers turn to Malaysia after it extended duty free shipments to clear record stockpiles. Indonesia will release its estimate for January exports at the end of this month, and follow with the February export tax figure of 9 % in March.
News for Use
Robobank expects CPO futures to find support above MYR 2,400/ton for the remaining time in 1st quarter to encourage demand. They also said that current low prices will continue to stimulate export demand and draw down inventories supporting prices. The bank forecasts CPO prices to average MYR 2,700/ton in the second quarter of 2013, 12.5% from its projection for 1Q 2013.
CPO edged higher in the opening trade in international market supported by improving export demand in the first 15 days of February. The numbers suggest that Malaysia's new export tax structure has helped to boost shipments as Malaysian exporters enjoy tax advantage over Indonesia. Cargo surveyors said exports surged mainly due to an up tick in outbound sales to major Palm Oil buyers, China and the European Union.
Prices eased from elevated levels in futures market soon after Malaysia's announcement came that it will raise export taxes on Crude Palm Oil shipments in March. In a circular issued on Friday Malaysia reported that it will set CPO export duties at 4.5% in March after two consecutive months of no duties that boosted crude shipments from Malaysia and helped to ease stockpiles. Crude Palm Oil witnessed a slight uptrend this year after falling heavily last year amid speculation that holdings will drop as exports gain and supply shrinks.
Malaysia's CPO exports in March are likely to be much lower due to higher tax rate and Indian importers have bought quite a fair bit in January. Palm oil port stocks at Indian ports are also filing up and therefore buying may slow down soon. But at the same time buying from China may start buying again from next week after markets open after long new year holidays.
Palm Oil shipments from Indonesia, may decline to the lowest level in four months in February as more buyers turn to Malaysia after it extended duty free shipments to clear record stockpiles. Indonesia will release its estimate for January exports at the end of this month, and follow with the February export tax figure of 9 % in March.
News for Use
Robobank expects CPO futures to find support above MYR 2,400/ton for the remaining time in 1st quarter to encourage demand. They also said that current low prices will continue to stimulate export demand and draw down inventories supporting prices. The bank forecasts CPO prices to average MYR 2,700/ton in the second quarter of 2013, 12.5% from its projection for 1Q 2013.
Friday, February 8, 2013
Market Intelligence Crude Palm Oil 8th February, 2013
Market Intelligence
Palm Oil prices in international as well as domestic markets traded steady. Prices were almost flat in range bound trade as traders remained cautious ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Market participants were also waiting for USDA monthly supply and demand report later in the day which may show tighter Soybean stocks. Lower production of Soybean and oil could shift demand variably to Palm Oil. Sentiments were positive on optimism that export demand could go up for the tropical oil. The wide discount between Palm Oil and rival Soy Oil continues to exist. This is attracting price sensitive buyers to the cheaper available option, Palm Oil.
Malaysian markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for Lunar New year holiday. MPOB will publish January crop data after trading resumes on Wednesday. Market participants expect stockpiles to ease slightly from December's record high, as export demand has recovered. Traders are also eying export estimates for first 10 days by cargo surveyors scheduled on Feb. 13.
Palm Oil may witness a range bound choppy trade next week amid key data releases. Major Palm Oil consumer China, will be closed for whole week for Lunar New Year holidays.
News for Use
Malaysia's prominent investment bank lowers the average CPO price for 2013 by 12% to MYR2,500/ton from a previous forecast of MYR2,850/ton, reiterating its underweight rating on the Palm Oil sector. They also forecast a surge in Malaysian Palm Oil inventories to 2.82 million tons by the end of the year, vs 2.38 million tons reached in 2012.
Palm Oil prices in international as well as domestic markets traded steady. Prices were almost flat in range bound trade as traders remained cautious ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Market participants were also waiting for USDA monthly supply and demand report later in the day which may show tighter Soybean stocks. Lower production of Soybean and oil could shift demand variably to Palm Oil. Sentiments were positive on optimism that export demand could go up for the tropical oil. The wide discount between Palm Oil and rival Soy Oil continues to exist. This is attracting price sensitive buyers to the cheaper available option, Palm Oil.
Malaysian markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for Lunar New year holiday. MPOB will publish January crop data after trading resumes on Wednesday. Market participants expect stockpiles to ease slightly from December's record high, as export demand has recovered. Traders are also eying export estimates for first 10 days by cargo surveyors scheduled on Feb. 13.
Palm Oil may witness a range bound choppy trade next week amid key data releases. Major Palm Oil consumer China, will be closed for whole week for Lunar New Year holidays.
News for Use
Malaysia's prominent investment bank lowers the average CPO price for 2013 by 12% to MYR2,500/ton from a previous forecast of MYR2,850/ton, reiterating its underweight rating on the Palm Oil sector. They also forecast a surge in Malaysian Palm Oil inventories to 2.82 million tons by the end of the year, vs 2.38 million tons reached in 2012.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Market Intelligence Crude Palm Oil 5th February, 2013
Market Intelligence
Crude Palm Oil inched lower globally on concerns of uncertainty in Europe which stirred in negative sentiments. Political instability in Spain and Italy prompted investors to lock in gains. Downfall was, however, limited on fears of unpleasant weather in major Soybean growing regions in Argentina and expectations for improving Palm Oil exports.
Palm Oil exports are likely to improve in coming months, driven mainly by Malaysia's move to revamp its existing export duty structure as part of a plan to improve competitiveness and grab back market share from top producer Indonesia. Malaysia's export tax changes will aid refiners in the country as margins will improve. There are also forecasts of higher shipments to emerging markets such as Myanmar and Iran as consumption rises there.
Malaysia expects brighter days for Palm refiners on account of better margins as they ramp up production. Indonesia's move of higher export taxes will act as a blessing for refiners in Malaysia. More exports will bring down the stockpiles which will ultimately raise the price of CPO. Exports may go up this year as the Malaysian government has already discontinued the duty free export quota beginning last month. The use of B10 bio diesel containing CPO from middle of next year is also expected to stabilize the prices.
Palm Oil may trade volatile with range bound movement as traders may move to the sidelines ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. The China markets are expected to slow down next week ahead of the Chinese New Year which falls on February 10, 2013. Investors also remain cautious over demand for Malaysian exports, even though Chinese authorities haven't refused shipments after imposing stricter quality control measures. Stockpiles in January are also close to December's record high.
Crude Palm Oil inched lower globally on concerns of uncertainty in Europe which stirred in negative sentiments. Political instability in Spain and Italy prompted investors to lock in gains. Downfall was, however, limited on fears of unpleasant weather in major Soybean growing regions in Argentina and expectations for improving Palm Oil exports.
Palm Oil exports are likely to improve in coming months, driven mainly by Malaysia's move to revamp its existing export duty structure as part of a plan to improve competitiveness and grab back market share from top producer Indonesia. Malaysia's export tax changes will aid refiners in the country as margins will improve. There are also forecasts of higher shipments to emerging markets such as Myanmar and Iran as consumption rises there.
Malaysia expects brighter days for Palm refiners on account of better margins as they ramp up production. Indonesia's move of higher export taxes will act as a blessing for refiners in Malaysia. More exports will bring down the stockpiles which will ultimately raise the price of CPO. Exports may go up this year as the Malaysian government has already discontinued the duty free export quota beginning last month. The use of B10 bio diesel containing CPO from middle of next year is also expected to stabilize the prices.
Palm Oil may trade volatile with range bound movement as traders may move to the sidelines ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. The China markets are expected to slow down next week ahead of the Chinese New Year which falls on February 10, 2013. Investors also remain cautious over demand for Malaysian exports, even though Chinese authorities haven't refused shipments after imposing stricter quality control measures. Stockpiles in January are also close to December's record high.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Weekly Crude Palm Oil Report January 27 2013
Crude palm oil futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended the week higher, supported by weather concern in South America and firm soybean oil prices.
The benchmark FCPO April contract rose RM45 or 1.88 per cent to settle at RM2,445 per tonne on Friday from RM2,400 per tonne last Friday.
The trading range for the week was from RM2,404 to RM2,488.
Total volume traded for the week amounted to 146,967 contracts, down 56,208 contracts from the previous week.
The open interest as at Wednesday increased to 185,630 contracts from 182,124 contracts the previous Thursday. The palm oil market rallied during the beginning of the week due to dry weather concerns in South America.
The market participants were very sensitive to any weather change during these few months as the soybean crops in South America are entering the critical planting development phase.
The weather conditions in South America were generally favourable for soybean crops at the beginning of the year.
The weather started to change to hot and dry pattern for the past two weeks drew attention of the market participants.
If timely rains appear in the next two weeks, soybean crops could recover from the current condition.
Some weather forecast reports showed that there would be beneficial rains in South America next week, capping further gains in soybean complex and prompted some speculators to take profits off the table.
On the other hand, Malaysia was also having some weather problems where consistent heavy rains were falling in key palm oil producing states like Pahang and Johor.
These two states alone produced about 30 per cent of the total palm oil production in Malaysia.
There was no serious disruption or damage to the palm oil production at the current moment but close monitoring on the weather pattern would be observed from time to time.
On the demand side, the exports were slowly improving but not strong enough to offset the high production levels.
The exports to top importing countries remained lacklustre especially to the European Union countries due to seasonal factor.
Cargo surveyor ITS released the palm oil export figures for the period of January 1 to 25 on Friday at 1,102,585 tonnes, a drop of 14.11 per cent while another surveyor SGS at 1,104,890 tonnes, a fall of 14.60 per cent from the same period last month.
The Indian government has raised its base price for crude palm oil imports to US$802 per tonne on Wednesday on top of the 2.5 per cent import tax implemented the previous week.
Again, the Indian government’s move was to protect the local industry and to avoid excessive cheap palm oil supplies in their market. The Malaysian markets will be closed on Monday and Friday celebrating Thaipusam and Federal Territory Day respectively.
Technical View
The benchmark April contract was slowly crawling up this week and the technical indicators were improving to supportive signals.
If the market is able to stand firm above RM2,450 next week, the palm oil prices will have high potential to go up.
If the market is able to further break RM2,490 level, the bull trend may resume in the medium term.
Resistance would be pegged at RM2,450 and RM2,524 while support was set at RM2,330 and RM2,280.
Major fundamental news this coming week
Malaysian export data for January 1 to 31 by ITS and SGS on January 31.
-courtesy of OPF-
The benchmark FCPO April contract rose RM45 or 1.88 per cent to settle at RM2,445 per tonne on Friday from RM2,400 per tonne last Friday.
The trading range for the week was from RM2,404 to RM2,488.
Total volume traded for the week amounted to 146,967 contracts, down 56,208 contracts from the previous week.
The open interest as at Wednesday increased to 185,630 contracts from 182,124 contracts the previous Thursday. The palm oil market rallied during the beginning of the week due to dry weather concerns in South America.
The market participants were very sensitive to any weather change during these few months as the soybean crops in South America are entering the critical planting development phase.
The weather conditions in South America were generally favourable for soybean crops at the beginning of the year.
The weather started to change to hot and dry pattern for the past two weeks drew attention of the market participants.
If timely rains appear in the next two weeks, soybean crops could recover from the current condition.
Some weather forecast reports showed that there would be beneficial rains in South America next week, capping further gains in soybean complex and prompted some speculators to take profits off the table.
On the other hand, Malaysia was also having some weather problems where consistent heavy rains were falling in key palm oil producing states like Pahang and Johor.
These two states alone produced about 30 per cent of the total palm oil production in Malaysia.
There was no serious disruption or damage to the palm oil production at the current moment but close monitoring on the weather pattern would be observed from time to time.
On the demand side, the exports were slowly improving but not strong enough to offset the high production levels.
The exports to top importing countries remained lacklustre especially to the European Union countries due to seasonal factor.
Cargo surveyor ITS released the palm oil export figures for the period of January 1 to 25 on Friday at 1,102,585 tonnes, a drop of 14.11 per cent while another surveyor SGS at 1,104,890 tonnes, a fall of 14.60 per cent from the same period last month.
The Indian government has raised its base price for crude palm oil imports to US$802 per tonne on Wednesday on top of the 2.5 per cent import tax implemented the previous week.
Again, the Indian government’s move was to protect the local industry and to avoid excessive cheap palm oil supplies in their market. The Malaysian markets will be closed on Monday and Friday celebrating Thaipusam and Federal Territory Day respectively.
Technical View
The benchmark April contract was slowly crawling up this week and the technical indicators were improving to supportive signals.
If the market is able to stand firm above RM2,450 next week, the palm oil prices will have high potential to go up.
If the market is able to further break RM2,490 level, the bull trend may resume in the medium term.
Resistance would be pegged at RM2,450 and RM2,524 while support was set at RM2,330 and RM2,280.
Major fundamental news this coming week
Malaysian export data for January 1 to 31 by ITS and SGS on January 31.
-courtesy of OPF-
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Market Intelligence Crude Palm Oil 24th January, 2013
Market Intelligence
CPO prices eased on profit booking by traders. Prices were also influenced by a fall in spot market demand. Speculators offloaded positions in tandem with weakening trend in other Edible Oils. Prices declined on concerns that exports from Malaysia may decrease this month as China is buying less after tightening quality regulations on imports.
The benchmark price of Crude Palm Oil was raised today by India. This move was done as part of efforts to curb overseas purchases and protect domestic Oilseed farmers. The government last week decided to impose a tax in order to prevent a flood of cheap Palm Oil imports from Malaysia and Indonesia, which were previously tax-free.
India's imports of Palm Oil have surged in the past few months after Indonesia and Malaysia cut exports taxes to reduce their large stocks. Global Edible Oil importers are likely to increase purchases of low priced Palm Oil in coming months, turning away from Soy Oil. Palm Oil is much cheaper than domestic branded vegetable oils and production is low because local mills lack the sophistication and infrastructure to boost output.
CPO prices eased on profit booking by traders. Prices were also influenced by a fall in spot market demand. Speculators offloaded positions in tandem with weakening trend in other Edible Oils. Prices declined on concerns that exports from Malaysia may decrease this month as China is buying less after tightening quality regulations on imports.
The benchmark price of Crude Palm Oil was raised today by India. This move was done as part of efforts to curb overseas purchases and protect domestic Oilseed farmers. The government last week decided to impose a tax in order to prevent a flood of cheap Palm Oil imports from Malaysia and Indonesia, which were previously tax-free.
India's imports of Palm Oil have surged in the past few months after Indonesia and Malaysia cut exports taxes to reduce their large stocks. Global Edible Oil importers are likely to increase purchases of low priced Palm Oil in coming months, turning away from Soy Oil. Palm Oil is much cheaper than domestic branded vegetable oils and production is low because local mills lack the sophistication and infrastructure to boost output.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Weekly Crude Palm Oil Report January 20 2013
The benchmark FCPO April contract rose RM34 or 1.44 per cent to settle at RM2,400 per tonne on Friday from RM2,366 per tonne last Friday.
The trading range for the week was from RM2,356 to RM2,444.
Total volume traded for the week amounted to 203,175 contracts, down 30,477 contracts from the previous week.
The open interest as at Thursday increased to 182,124 contracts from 173,776 contracts the previous Thursday.
The weather in Argentina and southern Brazil turned drier this week had caused some concerns among the market participants. Even the situation was not serious yet, it raised concerns of the on-going dryness there.
The hot and sunny weather was initially favoured after months of heavy rains and floods in Argentina. However, the crops fields were started to get too dry thereafter.
The prospects for a large soybean crop in Brazil was still intact with some analysts revised their forecast higher.
Most analysts predicted the soybean production in Brazil to be in the range of 82.5 million to 84 million tonnes.
On the other hand, palm oil prices were unable to move up much due to poor export demand and an increase in Indian import tax on crude edible oils.
Cargo surveyor ITS released the palm oil export figures for the period of January 1 to January 15 on Tuesday at 570,510 tonnes, a drop of 20.74 per cent while another surveyor SGS at 571,481 tonnes, a fall of 22.20 per cent from the same period last month.
The demand from China and European Union countries remained significantly low.
There will be a visit by the officials from China to Malaysia end of January, opening up the opportunity to get more insights on the new quality control imposed by the Chinese government.
India implemented a 2.5 per cent import duty on crude edible oils on Thursday which could dampen the demand for crude palm oil.
This move by the Indian government was to protect the interest of its local oilseed farmers.
However, the import duty imposed was less than the earlier expectation of five per cent.
The Malaysian government announced on Tuesday that its crude palm oil export tax for February would be remained at zero per cent, hoping to boost more demand for the tropical oil.
The US grain markets will be closed on Monday celebrating Martin Luther King Junior day while the Malaysian markets will be closed on Thursday for Prophet Muhammad’s Birthday.
Technical view
The benchmark April contract was basically trapped in a range market this week. The market will remain in the sideway of RM2,330 to RM2,450 levels until there is a significant break out from the current range.
Resistance would be pegged at RM2,450 and RM2,524 while support was set at RM2,330 and RM2,280.
Major fundamental news this coming week
Malaysian export data for January 1 to January 20 by ITS and SGS on January 21 and the export figures for January 1 to January 25 by ITS and SGS on January 25.
-courtesy of OPF-
Friday, January 18, 2013
Market Intelligence Crude Palm Oil 18th January, 2013
Market Intelligence
CPO closed with mild gains in domestic stop markets on rising demand. Fresh positions were created by speculators in futures market on the back of a firming trend in the domestic market and a pick up in demand mainly. The government enhanced import duty on Crude Edible Oils, while retaining the present import duty on all Refined Edible Oils. This has been done with the objective to shore up the price payable to farmers for Fresh Fruit Bunches of Oil Palm, which is linked to the landed price of CPO. With enhanced duty on CPO, price payable to farmers will increase by around Rs. 150 per MT. Impact of enhanced duty on prices of Edible Oils would be negligible at less than Rs. 1 per kg. The price may be further moderated on account of the huge stocks of Palm Oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, which may force these countries to lower the export duty currently levied in an effort to boost their exports. The CCEA also approved a plan to de freeze the tariff values of all Edible Oils including Palm Oil and notify their tariff values on the basis of their prevailing international prices. An alignment of notified tariff values with international prices will have a positive impact on the duty collected from import of Edible Oils and will provide an even field to the domestic refining industry.
In international markets CPO eased initially reacting to India's import duty structure on Crude Palm Oil imports, a move which is considered will hurt demand and leave stocks near record highs. However, prices recovered from lower levels on short covering by traders and speculators ahead of weekend. India, yesterday set a 2.5 % import duty on Crude Edible Oils to stem imports and protect domestic Oilseed growers. Some traders believe that the duty may be too small to really have an impact on Crude Palm Oil demand. The impact of higher duty was minimal in the local market as traders expect that Malaysia and Indonesia may be forced to lower export duty to clear stockpiles. Slightly better than expected economic data from China also acted as a positive cue and capped prices on downside. China's Q4 GDP growth data showed a 7.9% on-year rise vs expectations of 7.8% growth. Investors have shifted attention now to the South American weather pattern. Concerns over dry weather in major Soybean producer Argentina will likely support rival Palm Oil's prices.
Malaysia and Indonesia, are struggling with record stocks since September due to tepid global economic conditions and the euro zone crisis, which have stifled demand and caused prices to tumble in recent past. End stocks are expected to slowly shrink in the first quarter of this year on the back of seasonally slowing production, sluggish exports could crimp any recovery in prices. CPO prices in domestic markets are likely to decline in near term as demands from Indian refiners are probably going to decline. But the downside may not be significant because Palm Oil is still far cheaper than alternatives.
News for Use
At current prices Refined Palm products are offered $350-$370/ton cheaper than rival Soy Oil and a hefty $400/ton discount to Rapeseed Oil.
Events to Watch
January 1-20 export estimates by cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. due on 21st January, 2013.
CPO closed with mild gains in domestic stop markets on rising demand. Fresh positions were created by speculators in futures market on the back of a firming trend in the domestic market and a pick up in demand mainly. The government enhanced import duty on Crude Edible Oils, while retaining the present import duty on all Refined Edible Oils. This has been done with the objective to shore up the price payable to farmers for Fresh Fruit Bunches of Oil Palm, which is linked to the landed price of CPO. With enhanced duty on CPO, price payable to farmers will increase by around Rs. 150 per MT. Impact of enhanced duty on prices of Edible Oils would be negligible at less than Rs. 1 per kg. The price may be further moderated on account of the huge stocks of Palm Oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, which may force these countries to lower the export duty currently levied in an effort to boost their exports. The CCEA also approved a plan to de freeze the tariff values of all Edible Oils including Palm Oil and notify their tariff values on the basis of their prevailing international prices. An alignment of notified tariff values with international prices will have a positive impact on the duty collected from import of Edible Oils and will provide an even field to the domestic refining industry.
In international markets CPO eased initially reacting to India's import duty structure on Crude Palm Oil imports, a move which is considered will hurt demand and leave stocks near record highs. However, prices recovered from lower levels on short covering by traders and speculators ahead of weekend. India, yesterday set a 2.5 % import duty on Crude Edible Oils to stem imports and protect domestic Oilseed growers. Some traders believe that the duty may be too small to really have an impact on Crude Palm Oil demand. The impact of higher duty was minimal in the local market as traders expect that Malaysia and Indonesia may be forced to lower export duty to clear stockpiles. Slightly better than expected economic data from China also acted as a positive cue and capped prices on downside. China's Q4 GDP growth data showed a 7.9% on-year rise vs expectations of 7.8% growth. Investors have shifted attention now to the South American weather pattern. Concerns over dry weather in major Soybean producer Argentina will likely support rival Palm Oil's prices.
Malaysia and Indonesia, are struggling with record stocks since September due to tepid global economic conditions and the euro zone crisis, which have stifled demand and caused prices to tumble in recent past. End stocks are expected to slowly shrink in the first quarter of this year on the back of seasonally slowing production, sluggish exports could crimp any recovery in prices. CPO prices in domestic markets are likely to decline in near term as demands from Indian refiners are probably going to decline. But the downside may not be significant because Palm Oil is still far cheaper than alternatives.
News for Use
At current prices Refined Palm products are offered $350-$370/ton cheaper than rival Soy Oil and a hefty $400/ton discount to Rapeseed Oil.
Events to Watch
January 1-20 export estimates by cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. due on 21st January, 2013.
Market Intelligence Crude Palm Oil 17th January, 2013
Market Intelligence
CPO prices in the domestic markets remained steady paring recent gains as speculators offloaded their positions, taking negative cues from overseas. In international markets, Palm Oil declined on concerns that inventories may stay near record levels as exports dropped and India imposes to tax imports to protect local growers. CPO in futures market eased from recent highs due to a lack of buying momentum and concern about Refined Palm Oil shipments to China.
CPO prices fell immediately after India imposed a 2.5% import tax on Crude Edible Oils in a bid to protect its farmers against a surge of cheap imports. Investors turned bearish on Palm Oil after India's import tax announcement on concerns that this could slow export demand and keep Palm Oil stockpiles near record levels. Malaysian Palm Oil stockpiles at end-December reached an all-time high. Still, some traders are hopeful that India's tax imposition may not be completely negative for Malaysia. Palm Oil prices tumbled from highs as inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia surged because of low demand amid an economic slowdown in China and Europe. Investors locked in profits after steady gains in prices. Traders also took cues from hints of recovering demand from major buyers as temperatures become warmer and more suitable for Palm Oil.
Indian government has decided to lift a freeze on the taxable value of Edible Oils including CPO. India will revise the base price used to calculate import taxes for CPO on a fortnightly basis now onwards as result of this revision. The current base price for CPO is unchanged from last six years. The Cabinet has approved to de freeze the tariff values of all Edible Oils including Palm Oil & Soy Oil and notify their tariff values on the basis of their prevailing international prices. An alignment of notified tariff values with international prices will have a positive impact on the duty collected from import of Edible Oils and will provide an even field to the domestic refining industry.
Indonesia, will not change its export tax structure for the Edible Oil or follow rival producer Malaysia by cutting tariffs on crude grades to zero. The Malaysian tax changes were aimed at clawing back market share from Indonesia. Rising inventories would increase pressure on Indonesia to cut its export tax to compete with Malaysia. If the government cuts the export tax, it will definitely help boost shipments. Attempts by Indonesian exporters to cut reserves are hampered by the zero tariff in Malaysia, causing inventories to stay high.
Palm Oil is expected to rebound, as investors likely to square off riskier positions ahead of the weekend. However, in longer view traders are still cautious on concerns of stock piles.
News For Use
JPMorgan cut its Palm Oil price forecast by 10 % to 2,600 Ringgit a ton for 2013-2014 from 2,900 a ton earlier, citing an overhang of inventories.
Vietnam is considering putting emergency import tariffs on Soy Oil and Palm Oil to prevent a flood of imports damaging its own producers. Under WTO rules, countries may temporarily impose such tariffs known as "safeguard measures" if they can show that there is a serious threat to domestic producers.
CPO prices in the domestic markets remained steady paring recent gains as speculators offloaded their positions, taking negative cues from overseas. In international markets, Palm Oil declined on concerns that inventories may stay near record levels as exports dropped and India imposes to tax imports to protect local growers. CPO in futures market eased from recent highs due to a lack of buying momentum and concern about Refined Palm Oil shipments to China.
CPO prices fell immediately after India imposed a 2.5% import tax on Crude Edible Oils in a bid to protect its farmers against a surge of cheap imports. Investors turned bearish on Palm Oil after India's import tax announcement on concerns that this could slow export demand and keep Palm Oil stockpiles near record levels. Malaysian Palm Oil stockpiles at end-December reached an all-time high. Still, some traders are hopeful that India's tax imposition may not be completely negative for Malaysia. Palm Oil prices tumbled from highs as inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia surged because of low demand amid an economic slowdown in China and Europe. Investors locked in profits after steady gains in prices. Traders also took cues from hints of recovering demand from major buyers as temperatures become warmer and more suitable for Palm Oil.
Indian government has decided to lift a freeze on the taxable value of Edible Oils including CPO. India will revise the base price used to calculate import taxes for CPO on a fortnightly basis now onwards as result of this revision. The current base price for CPO is unchanged from last six years. The Cabinet has approved to de freeze the tariff values of all Edible Oils including Palm Oil & Soy Oil and notify their tariff values on the basis of their prevailing international prices. An alignment of notified tariff values with international prices will have a positive impact on the duty collected from import of Edible Oils and will provide an even field to the domestic refining industry.
Indonesia, will not change its export tax structure for the Edible Oil or follow rival producer Malaysia by cutting tariffs on crude grades to zero. The Malaysian tax changes were aimed at clawing back market share from Indonesia. Rising inventories would increase pressure on Indonesia to cut its export tax to compete with Malaysia. If the government cuts the export tax, it will definitely help boost shipments. Attempts by Indonesian exporters to cut reserves are hampered by the zero tariff in Malaysia, causing inventories to stay high.
Palm Oil is expected to rebound, as investors likely to square off riskier positions ahead of the weekend. However, in longer view traders are still cautious on concerns of stock piles.
News For Use
JPMorgan cut its Palm Oil price forecast by 10 % to 2,600 Ringgit a ton for 2013-2014 from 2,900 a ton earlier, citing an overhang of inventories.
Vietnam is considering putting emergency import tariffs on Soy Oil and Palm Oil to prevent a flood of imports damaging its own producers. Under WTO rules, countries may temporarily impose such tariffs known as "safeguard measures" if they can show that there is a serious threat to domestic producers.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Market Intelligence Crude Palm Oil 16th January, 2013
Market Intelligence
CPO climbed on speculation that stockpiles in Malaysia may drop from a record as output falls and demand recovers in India and Pakistan. Rising imports from India supported Palm Oil prices at a time when demand from China is being affected by new quality control rules. Cooking Oil imports by India jumped last month after a decline in prices of the tropical commodity and domestic Oilseed supplies spurred demand. Heavy discount of Palm products over other Oils and lower domestic production of Vegetable Oils due to slowdown in crushing pushed up the import of Palm products even during the winter season. India's consumption of Palm Oil could rise by 750,000 metric tons in the marketing year that ends Oct. 31, driven by a drop in the prices of the tropical oil and as demand for other vegetable oils eases. India may continue to buy huge quantities of Palm Oil in February also. India is showing escalating interest towards sustainable Palm Oil. The number of Indian RSPO members, has increased over five times from 2011 to 2012 comprising leading players within the Palm Oil sector in India.
Malaysia will allow shipments of the Crude Oil at zero duty for another month in February as it seeks to reduce inventory. Indonesia will not aggressively slash its CPO export tax as an effort to boost competition with Malaysia as the number of raw Palm Oil exported by the country to overseas was small. Indonesia has set up a progressive Palm Oil export structure in line with policy to boost the Palm Oil downstream industry. Increased competition from Indonesia may erode Malaysian exports, while benefiting importers such as India, China and Pakistan.
Thai Oil Palm and Palm Oil exports are in trouble, as shipments of local products are less competitive because of high prices as a result of the government's price intervention scheme. Demand also remains weak there as the economy has yet to fully recover. Fresh Palm nut prices in Thailand tumbled to only two baht per kg due to oversupply, caused by unusually wet weather that boosted output.
Palm Oil prices are likely to remain firm in future on increasing demand. Palm Oil's large discount to rival Soy Oil and increased competitiveness of Malaysia's downstream Palm Oil sector which will help to drive demand.
News For Use
Officials from China's food safety to visit Malaysia at the end of January to shed light on new quality control rules imposed by the country. The visit will give some clarity to Malaysian refiners with businesses in China. Malaysian Palm Oil Board has proposed China to grant a six-month exemption to exporters and refiners to give them time to adjust to the new rules.
Conference on the Global Trends in Sustainable Production and sourcing of Edible Oils to be held on February 1st, 2013 at Delhi.
CPO climbed on speculation that stockpiles in Malaysia may drop from a record as output falls and demand recovers in India and Pakistan. Rising imports from India supported Palm Oil prices at a time when demand from China is being affected by new quality control rules. Cooking Oil imports by India jumped last month after a decline in prices of the tropical commodity and domestic Oilseed supplies spurred demand. Heavy discount of Palm products over other Oils and lower domestic production of Vegetable Oils due to slowdown in crushing pushed up the import of Palm products even during the winter season. India's consumption of Palm Oil could rise by 750,000 metric tons in the marketing year that ends Oct. 31, driven by a drop in the prices of the tropical oil and as demand for other vegetable oils eases. India may continue to buy huge quantities of Palm Oil in February also. India is showing escalating interest towards sustainable Palm Oil. The number of Indian RSPO members, has increased over five times from 2011 to 2012 comprising leading players within the Palm Oil sector in India.
Malaysia will allow shipments of the Crude Oil at zero duty for another month in February as it seeks to reduce inventory. Indonesia will not aggressively slash its CPO export tax as an effort to boost competition with Malaysia as the number of raw Palm Oil exported by the country to overseas was small. Indonesia has set up a progressive Palm Oil export structure in line with policy to boost the Palm Oil downstream industry. Increased competition from Indonesia may erode Malaysian exports, while benefiting importers such as India, China and Pakistan.
Thai Oil Palm and Palm Oil exports are in trouble, as shipments of local products are less competitive because of high prices as a result of the government's price intervention scheme. Demand also remains weak there as the economy has yet to fully recover. Fresh Palm nut prices in Thailand tumbled to only two baht per kg due to oversupply, caused by unusually wet weather that boosted output.
Palm Oil prices are likely to remain firm in future on increasing demand. Palm Oil's large discount to rival Soy Oil and increased competitiveness of Malaysia's downstream Palm Oil sector which will help to drive demand.
News For Use
Officials from China's food safety to visit Malaysia at the end of January to shed light on new quality control rules imposed by the country. The visit will give some clarity to Malaysian refiners with businesses in China. Malaysian Palm Oil Board has proposed China to grant a six-month exemption to exporters and refiners to give them time to adjust to the new rules.
Conference on the Global Trends in Sustainable Production and sourcing of Edible Oils to be held on February 1st, 2013 at Delhi.
Sunday, January 13, 2013
Market Intelligence Crude Palm Oil 11th January 2013
CPO traded lower, as investors build short positions in futures due to ample Palm Oil supplies in Malaysia. Further selling pressure is expected as higher than expected CPO output and relatively flat outbound sales pushed stocks to a record high. Palm oil shipments to China surprisingly fell ahead of tighter Chinese quality control rules.
However, some industry experts who expect the average CPO price to drop this year compared with last year are still bullish on the Palm Oil outlook. They see potential for CPO price to strengthen towards the later part of 2013. Any stresses on the global system in the form of weather or diseases can lead to production shortfalls, triggering price explosions. Industry players would be looking more intensely into ways to enhance labor productivity to reduce costs this year. Malaysian exporters are not rushing off to export directly and take advantage of the zero percent tax for this month yet as some planters may continue to sell to local refiners.
Rabobank signaled a downgrade ahead in its forecasts for prices of Palm Oil, which it had rated as its most bullish agricultural commodity for 2013, after Malaysian stocks of the vegetable oil defied market expectations by rising to a fresh record high. The uncertainty around future import demand, particularly to China, has acted to limit upside price moves. Palm Oil prices likely to remain range bound in coming weeks until a seasonal slowdown in Palm Oil production is likely seen in March. The downside in prices is also limited on account of the discount of Palm Oil prices to those in rival vegetable oils. In the medium-to-longer term this price discount is unsustainable. And a seasonal slowdown in Palm Oil production is likely to emerge by the end of the first quarter of 2013 which should narrow the price discount to Soy Oil.
Meanwhile, China reported an increase in Palm Oil imports. The demand outlook is being clouded by Chinese legislation on the use of retail Edible Oil blends, and lower reported per-store sales by major food service companies in the second half of 2012. Thailand, likely produce a record Crude Palm Oil output this year. While the record output will put some pressure on prices in the market, rising demand for bio diesel made from Palm Oil will underpin price levels.
According to Alvin Tai, senior plantation analyst at Kuala Lumpur-based OSK Investment Bank, the downside for CPO prices is relatively limited given parity to Brent crude prices which will help trigger demand for use in the energy sector. Additionally he said Malaysia's move to cut the tax on CPO exports and abolish a duty-free shipment quota from the beginning of January will have some positive impact on CPO shipments, and we should see the effects the next one to two months.
For the week ahead investors are likely to monitor export trends during the Jan 1-15 period to see whether a new tax rate has helped boost orders. Malaysia is scheduled to announce its February CPO export-tax rate on Tuesday.
However, some industry experts who expect the average CPO price to drop this year compared with last year are still bullish on the Palm Oil outlook. They see potential for CPO price to strengthen towards the later part of 2013. Any stresses on the global system in the form of weather or diseases can lead to production shortfalls, triggering price explosions. Industry players would be looking more intensely into ways to enhance labor productivity to reduce costs this year. Malaysian exporters are not rushing off to export directly and take advantage of the zero percent tax for this month yet as some planters may continue to sell to local refiners.
Rabobank signaled a downgrade ahead in its forecasts for prices of Palm Oil, which it had rated as its most bullish agricultural commodity for 2013, after Malaysian stocks of the vegetable oil defied market expectations by rising to a fresh record high. The uncertainty around future import demand, particularly to China, has acted to limit upside price moves. Palm Oil prices likely to remain range bound in coming weeks until a seasonal slowdown in Palm Oil production is likely seen in March. The downside in prices is also limited on account of the discount of Palm Oil prices to those in rival vegetable oils. In the medium-to-longer term this price discount is unsustainable. And a seasonal slowdown in Palm Oil production is likely to emerge by the end of the first quarter of 2013 which should narrow the price discount to Soy Oil.
Meanwhile, China reported an increase in Palm Oil imports. The demand outlook is being clouded by Chinese legislation on the use of retail Edible Oil blends, and lower reported per-store sales by major food service companies in the second half of 2012. Thailand, likely produce a record Crude Palm Oil output this year. While the record output will put some pressure on prices in the market, rising demand for bio diesel made from Palm Oil will underpin price levels.
According to Alvin Tai, senior plantation analyst at Kuala Lumpur-based OSK Investment Bank, the downside for CPO prices is relatively limited given parity to Brent crude prices which will help trigger demand for use in the energy sector. Additionally he said Malaysia's move to cut the tax on CPO exports and abolish a duty-free shipment quota from the beginning of January will have some positive impact on CPO shipments, and we should see the effects the next one to two months.
For the week ahead investors are likely to monitor export trends during the Jan 1-15 period to see whether a new tax rate has helped boost orders. Malaysia is scheduled to announce its February CPO export-tax rate on Tuesday.
Weekly Crude Palm Oil Report January 13 2013
Crude palm oil futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives plunged this week due to bearish fundamental reports released during the week.
The benchmark FCPO March contract tumbled RM101 or 4.09 per cent to close at RM2,366 per tonne on Friday from RM2,467 per tonne last Friday. The trading range for the week was from RM2,332 to RM2,476.
Total volume traded for the week amounted to 233,652 contracts, up 88,390 contracts from the previous week.
The open interest as at Thursday increased to 173,776 contracts from 164,839 contracts the previous Thursday.
MPOB released its bearish monthly reports on Malaysian palm oil’s supply and demand for December 2012 on Thursday with palm oil stocks were continuously higher at 2.628 million tonnes, an increase of 2.41 per cent from the previous month and was far above the average estimation of Reuter’s poll at 2.5 million tonnes.
According to the report, the exports in December dropped slightly 0.70 per cent to 1.65 million tonnes while the palm oil production reduced 5.86 per cent to 1.78 million tonnes.
Although the fall in exports was less than the drop in production for December, the absolute figure for production was still higher than the exports, contributing to higher palm oil stocks.
The palm oil demand is seasonally weak during winter time as palm oil tends to crystallise in colder weather. On the other hand, the production was seen falling due to the effect of heavy rains during this time of the year.
Cargo surveyor ITS released the palm oil export figures for the period of January 1 to January 10 on Thursday at 373,462 tonnes, a plunge of 25.27 per cent while another surveyor SGS at 343,081 tonnes, a dive of 33.57 per cent from the same period last month.
The main reason of the weak exports data was due to low demand from top importing countries like China and European Union countries.
Both countries’ imports slumped 58 per cent and 67 per cent respectively during the first 10 days of January compared with the same period last month.
Most Chinese importers were abducting the wait and see attitude as to monitor the impact of the stringent quality on imported palm oil products by the Chinese government.
In addition, the effect of zero per cent export tax on crude palm oil by the Malaysian government has yet to boost any demand for the tropical oil.
The Malaysian government is expected to reveal its crude palm oil export tax for February next Tuesday.
Meanwhile, USDA released its monthly report on soybean supply and demand on Friday with US soybean production for 2012 was estimated at 3.015 billion bushels, up from 2.971 billion in the previous report.
Technical View
The benchmark March contract broke all the major supports this week especially piercing through the uptrend channel support and EMA 50 line easily on Monday.
The unsustainability to stand above EMA 50 support has pushed the market back to sideway trend in the medium term until further new development in the fundamental factors.
The benchmark contract will change from March to April month next Wednesday. Resistance was pegged at RM2,430 and RM2,524 while support was set at RM2,330 and RM2,280.
Major fundamental news this coming week
Malaysian export data for January 1 to January 15 by ITS and SGS on January 15.
-Courtesy of OPF-
The benchmark FCPO March contract tumbled RM101 or 4.09 per cent to close at RM2,366 per tonne on Friday from RM2,467 per tonne last Friday. The trading range for the week was from RM2,332 to RM2,476.
Total volume traded for the week amounted to 233,652 contracts, up 88,390 contracts from the previous week.
The open interest as at Thursday increased to 173,776 contracts from 164,839 contracts the previous Thursday.
MPOB released its bearish monthly reports on Malaysian palm oil’s supply and demand for December 2012 on Thursday with palm oil stocks were continuously higher at 2.628 million tonnes, an increase of 2.41 per cent from the previous month and was far above the average estimation of Reuter’s poll at 2.5 million tonnes.
According to the report, the exports in December dropped slightly 0.70 per cent to 1.65 million tonnes while the palm oil production reduced 5.86 per cent to 1.78 million tonnes.
Although the fall in exports was less than the drop in production for December, the absolute figure for production was still higher than the exports, contributing to higher palm oil stocks.
The palm oil demand is seasonally weak during winter time as palm oil tends to crystallise in colder weather. On the other hand, the production was seen falling due to the effect of heavy rains during this time of the year.
Cargo surveyor ITS released the palm oil export figures for the period of January 1 to January 10 on Thursday at 373,462 tonnes, a plunge of 25.27 per cent while another surveyor SGS at 343,081 tonnes, a dive of 33.57 per cent from the same period last month.
The main reason of the weak exports data was due to low demand from top importing countries like China and European Union countries.
Both countries’ imports slumped 58 per cent and 67 per cent respectively during the first 10 days of January compared with the same period last month.
Most Chinese importers were abducting the wait and see attitude as to monitor the impact of the stringent quality on imported palm oil products by the Chinese government.
In addition, the effect of zero per cent export tax on crude palm oil by the Malaysian government has yet to boost any demand for the tropical oil.
The Malaysian government is expected to reveal its crude palm oil export tax for February next Tuesday.
Meanwhile, USDA released its monthly report on soybean supply and demand on Friday with US soybean production for 2012 was estimated at 3.015 billion bushels, up from 2.971 billion in the previous report.
Technical View
The benchmark March contract broke all the major supports this week especially piercing through the uptrend channel support and EMA 50 line easily on Monday.
The unsustainability to stand above EMA 50 support has pushed the market back to sideway trend in the medium term until further new development in the fundamental factors.
The benchmark contract will change from March to April month next Wednesday. Resistance was pegged at RM2,430 and RM2,524 while support was set at RM2,330 and RM2,280.
Major fundamental news this coming week
Malaysian export data for January 1 to January 15 by ITS and SGS on January 15.
Friday, January 11, 2013
Crude Palm Oil Ends Down; Declining CPO Output Limit Fall
Crude palm-oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange fell Friday and headed for a weekly decline of 4% as Malaysian export demand falls.
The benchmark March contract at Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 0.9% lower at 2,366 ringgit a metric ton after falling as much as 2.3% to MYR2,332/ton.
The latest palm-oil export estimates by cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. show a slump in shipments to big consumer China which reflect exporters' reluctance to ship cargoes because of uncertainty about China's new quality-control rules.
China won't accept imports of edible oils containing excessive peroxide or stearic acid from Tuesday, according to China's Inspection and Quarantine Bureau.
Palm-oil inventory levels in December hit a high of 2.53 million tons. But analysts expect stocks to ease in the coming months as CPO output continues to decline during the January-March period as a result of seasonal factors.
"The downside for CPO prices is relatively limited given parity to Brent crude prices which will help trigger demand for use in the energy sector," Alvin Tai, senior plantation analyst at Kuala Lumpur-based OSK Investment Bank, said.
Malaysia's move to cut the tax on CPO exports and abolish a duty-free shipment quota from the beginning of January will have "some positive impact on [CPO] shipments," he said. "We should see the effects the next one to two months," he said.
For the week ahead investors are likely to monitor export trends during the Jan 1-15 period to see whether a new tax rate has helped boost orders. Malaysia is scheduled to announce its February CPO export-tax rate on Tuesday.
Open interest on the BMD was 173,776 lots versus 170,416 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
Write to Shie-Lynn Lim at shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 11, 2013 05:47 ET (10:47 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2013 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
The benchmark March contract at Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 0.9% lower at 2,366 ringgit a metric ton after falling as much as 2.3% to MYR2,332/ton.
The latest palm-oil export estimates by cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. show a slump in shipments to big consumer China which reflect exporters' reluctance to ship cargoes because of uncertainty about China's new quality-control rules.
China won't accept imports of edible oils containing excessive peroxide or stearic acid from Tuesday, according to China's Inspection and Quarantine Bureau.
Palm-oil inventory levels in December hit a high of 2.53 million tons. But analysts expect stocks to ease in the coming months as CPO output continues to decline during the January-March period as a result of seasonal factors.
"The downside for CPO prices is relatively limited given parity to Brent crude prices which will help trigger demand for use in the energy sector," Alvin Tai, senior plantation analyst at Kuala Lumpur-based OSK Investment Bank, said.
Malaysia's move to cut the tax on CPO exports and abolish a duty-free shipment quota from the beginning of January will have "some positive impact on [CPO] shipments," he said. "We should see the effects the next one to two months," he said.
For the week ahead investors are likely to monitor export trends during the Jan 1-15 period to see whether a new tax rate has helped boost orders. Malaysia is scheduled to announce its February CPO export-tax rate on Tuesday.
Open interest on the BMD was 173,776 lots versus 170,416 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
Ending BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton: Month Close Previous Change High Low Jan'13 2,260 2,275 -15 2,255 2,251 Feb'13 2,330 2,339 -9 2,326 2,298 Mar'13 2,366 2,387 -21 2,377 2,332 Apr'13 2,395 2,419 -24 2,411 2,356
Write to Shie-Lynn Lim at shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 11, 2013 05:47 ET (10:47 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2013 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Sunday, January 6, 2013
Weekly Crude Palm Oil Report January 6 2013
Crude palm oil futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives declined this week due to lower palm oil export demand for December and the prospect of larger soybean production in South America.
The benchmark FCPO March contract fell RM27 or 1.08 per cent to close at RM2,467 per tonne on Friday from RM2,494 per tonne last Friday.
The trading range for the week was from RM2,433 to RM2,524.
Total volume traded for the week amounted to 145,262 contracts, up 39,662 contracts from the previous week.
The open interest as at Thursday decreased to 164,839 contracts from 166,198 contracts the previous Thursday.
The crude palm oil prices wrapped up the year in a 21 per cent decline in 2012 compared to a 16 per cent fall in 2011 due to record high palm oil stocks, strong production and sluggish export demand.
The US soybean oil prices on the other hand fell five per cent in 2012, lesser than the 10 per cent decline in 2011 as the US experienced the worst drought in 56 years during summer.
The NYMEX crude oil prices was also facing the same fate as other commodities and was down seven per cent in 2012 against the gain of eight per cent in 2011 due to a slower global economic growth.
Cargo surveyor ITS revealed its palm oil export figures for the full month of December on Monday at 1,568,510 tonnes, a drop of 5.69 per cent while another surveyor SGS at 1,518,750 tonnes, a fall of 7.85 per cent from the same period last month.
The growth in exports for December was mainly contributed by India and Pakistan.
However, the slump in demand from China, European Union countries and the US was far exceeded the increase in demand from India and Pakistan.
Hence, the exports data for the first 10 days in January will be an important indication as to see the response of the demand after the implementation of zero per cent export tax for crude palm oil in January by the Malaysian government.
In addition, traders would also monitor the impact on palm oil demand from China after the Chinese government has imposed stricter quality standards on the imported edible oils starting from January 1.
The weather in South America was forecasted to be favourable in the coming week.
Some analysts also estimated the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) to raise its soybean production in 2012 and to expect a record high of soybean crops in Brazil in the coming report.
All these factors would pressure on soybean prices and may dampen the upward momentum of crude palm oil prices.
On the economic front, the US government has finally averted the fiscal cliff issue at a very last minute before the New Year.
Technical View
The benchmark March contract consolidated this week and was waiting for clearer direction from the major fundamental reports to be released next week.
The EMA 50 and the uptrend channel support line will be closely monitored as to determine the strength of the current upward momentum.
Resistance would be pegged at RM2,615 and RM2,755 while support was set at RM2,430 and RM2,350.
Major fundamental news this coming week
MPOB’s monthly supply-demand report on January 10, Malaysian export data for January 1 to 10 by ITS and SGS on January 10 and USDA’s monthly supply-demand report on January 11.
The benchmark FCPO March contract fell RM27 or 1.08 per cent to close at RM2,467 per tonne on Friday from RM2,494 per tonne last Friday.
The trading range for the week was from RM2,433 to RM2,524.
Total volume traded for the week amounted to 145,262 contracts, up 39,662 contracts from the previous week.
The open interest as at Thursday decreased to 164,839 contracts from 166,198 contracts the previous Thursday.
The crude palm oil prices wrapped up the year in a 21 per cent decline in 2012 compared to a 16 per cent fall in 2011 due to record high palm oil stocks, strong production and sluggish export demand.
The US soybean oil prices on the other hand fell five per cent in 2012, lesser than the 10 per cent decline in 2011 as the US experienced the worst drought in 56 years during summer.
The NYMEX crude oil prices was also facing the same fate as other commodities and was down seven per cent in 2012 against the gain of eight per cent in 2011 due to a slower global economic growth.
Cargo surveyor ITS revealed its palm oil export figures for the full month of December on Monday at 1,568,510 tonnes, a drop of 5.69 per cent while another surveyor SGS at 1,518,750 tonnes, a fall of 7.85 per cent from the same period last month.
The growth in exports for December was mainly contributed by India and Pakistan.
However, the slump in demand from China, European Union countries and the US was far exceeded the increase in demand from India and Pakistan.
Hence, the exports data for the first 10 days in January will be an important indication as to see the response of the demand after the implementation of zero per cent export tax for crude palm oil in January by the Malaysian government.
In addition, traders would also monitor the impact on palm oil demand from China after the Chinese government has imposed stricter quality standards on the imported edible oils starting from January 1.
The weather in South America was forecasted to be favourable in the coming week.
Some analysts also estimated the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) to raise its soybean production in 2012 and to expect a record high of soybean crops in Brazil in the coming report.
All these factors would pressure on soybean prices and may dampen the upward momentum of crude palm oil prices.
On the economic front, the US government has finally averted the fiscal cliff issue at a very last minute before the New Year.
Technical View
The benchmark March contract consolidated this week and was waiting for clearer direction from the major fundamental reports to be released next week.
The EMA 50 and the uptrend channel support line will be closely monitored as to determine the strength of the current upward momentum.
Resistance would be pegged at RM2,615 and RM2,755 while support was set at RM2,430 and RM2,350.
Major fundamental news this coming week
MPOB’s monthly supply-demand report on January 10, Malaysian export data for January 1 to 10 by ITS and SGS on January 10 and USDA’s monthly supply-demand report on January 11.
Saturday, January 5, 2013
Palm Oil Advances as Malaysia’s Export Tax May Boost Shipments
Palm oil advanced on speculation that
a new export tax structure in Malaysia, the second largest
producer, will help to boost shipments in the first quarter,
paring record stockpiles.
The contract for March delivery climbed as much as 0.9 percent to 2,495 ringgit ($819) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, and ended the morning session at 2,481 ringgit. Futures are heading for a 0.6 percent loss this week.
Malaysia said Dec. 17 it will allow crude palm oil exports at zero duty in January as the second-largest producer seeks to reduce stockpiles that drove prices to a three-year low last month. Futures lost 23 percent last year as inventories gained for five straight months, reaching a record 2.56 million tons in November, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.
“The most important thing people are paying attention to is how exports are going to be for January, February and March,” said Chandran Sinnasamy, head of trading at LT International Futures Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur. “Export estimates from Intertek and SGS on the 10th may give a rough idea whether the exports have improved with the new tax in Malaysia.”
Exports fell 5.7 percent to 1.57 million tons in December from 1.66 million tons a month earlier, surveyor Intertek said Dec. 31. Shipments dropped 7.9 percent to 1.52 million tons in the same period, Societe Generale de Surveillance estimated. Palm oil will trade sideways as concerns over high stockpiles in Malaysia and Indonesia still weigh on the market, said Chandran.
Palm oil for May delivery advanced 1.4 percent to 7,022 yuan ($1,127) a ton on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Soybean oil for May rose 1.5 percent to 8,740 yuan a ton.
Soybeans for March delivery gained 0.3 percent to $13.9025 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soybean oil for delivery in March was little changed at 50.68 cents a pound.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ranjeetha Pakiam in Kuala Lumpur at rpakiam@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jake Lloyd-Smith at jlloydsmith@bloomberg.net
The contract for March delivery climbed as much as 0.9 percent to 2,495 ringgit ($819) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, and ended the morning session at 2,481 ringgit. Futures are heading for a 0.6 percent loss this week.
Malaysia said Dec. 17 it will allow crude palm oil exports at zero duty in January as the second-largest producer seeks to reduce stockpiles that drove prices to a three-year low last month. Futures lost 23 percent last year as inventories gained for five straight months, reaching a record 2.56 million tons in November, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.
“The most important thing people are paying attention to is how exports are going to be for January, February and March,” said Chandran Sinnasamy, head of trading at LT International Futures Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur. “Export estimates from Intertek and SGS on the 10th may give a rough idea whether the exports have improved with the new tax in Malaysia.”
Exports fell 5.7 percent to 1.57 million tons in December from 1.66 million tons a month earlier, surveyor Intertek said Dec. 31. Shipments dropped 7.9 percent to 1.52 million tons in the same period, Societe Generale de Surveillance estimated. Palm oil will trade sideways as concerns over high stockpiles in Malaysia and Indonesia still weigh on the market, said Chandran.
Palm oil for May delivery advanced 1.4 percent to 7,022 yuan ($1,127) a ton on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Soybean oil for May rose 1.5 percent to 8,740 yuan a ton.
Soybeans for March delivery gained 0.3 percent to $13.9025 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soybean oil for delivery in March was little changed at 50.68 cents a pound.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ranjeetha Pakiam in Kuala Lumpur at rpakiam@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jake Lloyd-Smith at jlloydsmith@bloomberg.net
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