Sunday, September 2, 2012

Weekly Crude Palm Oil Report 2 September 2012

Crude palm oil futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended the week lower due to profit taking and positions squaring activities ahead of the long weekend after the market rose sharply for the past two weeks.

The benchmark FCPO November contract declined RM50 or 1.63 per cent to close at RM3,019 per tonne on Friday from RM3,069 per tonne last Friday.

The trading range for the week was from RM2,978 to RM3,122.

Total volume traded for the week amounted to 135,727 contracts, up 24,498 contracts from the previous week.

The open interest as at Wednesday increased to 129,327 contracts from 123,958 contracts the previous Thursday.

Typhoon Bolaven hit China on Tuesday on a weaker basis in terms of winds and rains which did not bring much harm to the crop production in China.

However, the Tropical Storm Isaac in US was strengthened to Hurricane Isaac Category 1 brought massive rainfalls, strong winds and floods to the US Gulf Coast region over the week, shutting down most of the oil and natural gas drilling platforms and refineries in the area and stalling the local business activities in the region.

The Hurricane Isaac was sighted to move forward and would bring moderate to heavy rainfalls to most of the southern half of US over the weekend.

Some analysts commented the rainfalls came too late to revive the soybean crops in the southern areas but it did bring some relief to the drought stricken region.

However, the heavy rainfalls may also halt the harvesting progress which is on-going currently in those areas.
The weekly crop progress report released by USDA on Monday indicated the soybean crop condition slipped slightly where the soybean crop was reported 30 per cent in good to excellent condition, down from 31 per cent the previous week.

Cargo surveyor ITS released the palm oil export fi gures for the full month of August on Friday at 1,453,544 tonnes, a surge of 17.73 per cent from the same period last month.

Earlier, cargo surveyor SGS released the palm oil export fi gures for the period of August 1 to 25 on Monday at 1,051,541 tonnes, an increase of 6.56 per cent from the same period last month.

The Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke hinted on the possibility and the need of more quantitative easing programs during his speech in Jackson Hole on Friday given the current high unemployment and stagnation in the US labour market.

His remarks lifted the sentiment in the overnight US equities market.

Traders would also focus on the outcome of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy next Thursday to gauge the development of the eurozone debt crisis.

The US market will be closed on Monday celebrating the Labour Day.

Technical View
The benchmark November contract retraced this week after the sharp rally for the past two weeks as we had mentioned earlier.

The market covered the gap nicely and we expect the uptrend would start anytime soon.
Resistance would be pegged at RM3,193 and RM3,270 while support was set at RM2,973 and RM2,820.

Major fundamental news this coming week
Malaysian export data for the full month of August by SGS on September 3 and the Reuters’ poll on the August’s palm oil supply and demand.

Courtesy of OPF

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