Hi Traders,
As the CPO movement in tight range last week up and down, Low=2425 H=2482 C=2474, it is expected the price will going down towards 2400 due to down trend of NYMEX crude oil & CBOT soybean oil. However long term trend still bearish mode. In addition expected CPO output and inventory may rise for May 2010, but still need to confirm with MPOB report on 10 June 2010. Therefore weigh the CPO price to 2400 level. If the opening price for Monday below than 2470, the price will rapidly going down towards 2440 level.
* Note: This is only my opinion based on experienced, fundamental reserach and technical analysis.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Up On Crude Oil, Weaker Ringgit
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended up Friday, rebounding from losses in the previous session as a recovery in crude oil and weakness in the ringgit prompted investors to cover short positions, trade participants said.
The benchmark August contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR18 higher at MYR2,474 a metric ton after moving in a range of MYR2,455-MYR2,481/ton.
The dollar rose to MYR3.2720 from yesterday’s close of MYR3.2700, making CPO less expensive for palm oil refiners, who use the oil as feedstock.
“Crude’s rise above $75 a barrel and the rebound in soyoil gave palm prices a leg-up in the late trading session,” said a senior trading executive based in Singapore.
July soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 5 points higher at 37.71 cents a pound at the end of trading on the BMD.
July crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose as much as 81 cents or 1.1% to $75.42 a barrel on Globex. At 0946 GMT, the July contract was up 54 cents at $75.15 a barrel.
Palm prices rose 1.6% this week, but many among traders said the trend wasn’t sustainable due to a likely rise in end-May palm oil inventory levels, as CPO output in Malaysia likely rose around 10% last month.
The rise in palm prices also narrowed the spread to prices of soyoil, resulting in a loss of market share as buyers stepped up purchases of the rival product, which is offered at par or slightly lower prices than palm oil at Brazilian and Argentinian ports, a trading executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage firm said.
Demand in the physical market “hasn’t been exciting and palm-soyoil’s narrow spread has prevented significant gains in CPO prices the past few months,” he said.
Cash palm olein used to be offered at a wide discount to soyoil of more than $100/ton, but now trades at par or at a slight premium.
Traders expect palm prices to move between MYR2,440 and MYR2,480/ton next week. A weak demand outlook and likely bearish production and inventory data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will cap gains.
The government-run Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue production, exports and month-end palm oil stocks data for May on June 10.
CME’s Group Inc.’s (CME) dollar-based CPO futures for September were trading $5.25 higher at $744.75/ton with 9 lots traded. One lot equals 25 tons.
August rupiah-denominated CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange ended 0.8% higher at IDR6,835 a kilogram with 84 lots traded. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons. The September contract ended 0.7% higher at IDR6,755/kg with 132 lots done.
In the cash market, palm olein for June shipment was offered unchanged at $805/ton. Cash CPO for prompt shipment also offered unchanged at MYR2,570/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 69,501 lots, versus 69,525 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
A total of 10,117 lots of CPO were traded versus 9,631 lots Thursday.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 04, 2010 06:38 ET (10:38 GMT)
The benchmark August contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR18 higher at MYR2,474 a metric ton after moving in a range of MYR2,455-MYR2,481/ton.
The dollar rose to MYR3.2720 from yesterday’s close of MYR3.2700, making CPO less expensive for palm oil refiners, who use the oil as feedstock.
“Crude’s rise above $75 a barrel and the rebound in soyoil gave palm prices a leg-up in the late trading session,” said a senior trading executive based in Singapore.
July soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 5 points higher at 37.71 cents a pound at the end of trading on the BMD.
July crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose as much as 81 cents or 1.1% to $75.42 a barrel on Globex. At 0946 GMT, the July contract was up 54 cents at $75.15 a barrel.
Palm prices rose 1.6% this week, but many among traders said the trend wasn’t sustainable due to a likely rise in end-May palm oil inventory levels, as CPO output in Malaysia likely rose around 10% last month.
The rise in palm prices also narrowed the spread to prices of soyoil, resulting in a loss of market share as buyers stepped up purchases of the rival product, which is offered at par or slightly lower prices than palm oil at Brazilian and Argentinian ports, a trading executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage firm said.
Demand in the physical market “hasn’t been exciting and palm-soyoil’s narrow spread has prevented significant gains in CPO prices the past few months,” he said.
Cash palm olein used to be offered at a wide discount to soyoil of more than $100/ton, but now trades at par or at a slight premium.
Traders expect palm prices to move between MYR2,440 and MYR2,480/ton next week. A weak demand outlook and likely bearish production and inventory data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will cap gains.
The government-run Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue production, exports and month-end palm oil stocks data for May on June 10.
CME’s Group Inc.’s (CME) dollar-based CPO futures for September were trading $5.25 higher at $744.75/ton with 9 lots traded. One lot equals 25 tons.
August rupiah-denominated CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange ended 0.8% higher at IDR6,835 a kilogram with 84 lots traded. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons. The September contract ended 0.7% higher at IDR6,755/kg with 132 lots done.
In the cash market, palm olein for June shipment was offered unchanged at $805/ton. Cash CPO for prompt shipment also offered unchanged at MYR2,570/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 69,501 lots, versus 69,525 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
A total of 10,117 lots of CPO were traded versus 9,631 lots Thursday.
Closing BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: Month Close Previous Change High Low Jun'10 2,560 2,538 Up 22 2,562 2,555 Jul'10 2,515 2,492 Up 23 2,521 2,495 Aug'10 2,474 2,456 Up 18 2,481 2,455 Sep'10 2,448 2,429 Up 19 2,455 2,431-By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233; shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 04, 2010 06:38 ET (10:38 GMT)
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
DJ Asian CPO Futures End Off Highs; MPOB Data Likely Bearish
KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended off highs Wednesday as crude traded lower and amid a likely rise in end-May palm oil inventory levels, prompting investors to take profit, trade participants said.
The benchmark August contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR8 higher at MYR2,468 a metric ton.
Despite bearish market sentiment, prices were higher during afternoon trade, rising to an intraday high of MYR2,480/ton as speculative buying and higher soyoil during Asian trading hours lifted prices up.
Traders had expected a fall in futures prices after overnight declines in crude and soyoil market and since data from the government-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board aren't likely to be price-friendly.
The MPOB is scheduled to issue Malaysia's May palm oil production, export and stock data June 10.
Traders estimate Malaysia's end-May palm oil inventories to be little changed to a tad higher, between 1.62 million tons and 1.65 million tons due to higher CPO supply.
Growers and traders estimated May palm oil output rose 10% on month. Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. put May palm oil exports at 1.33 million tons and 1.32 million tons, respectively.
"Prices couldn't sustain at higher levels as palm oil demand has been tad a sluggish," said a senior trading executive from Kuala Lumpur.
Many among buyers are only making purchases to replenish supplies and no large deals have been reported in the market so far that could push prices higher, he said.
Purchases by buyers have been slow as palm olein, a key product used for food-making, is more expensive than soyoil in the cash market, a Singapore-based trading executive said.
July soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade finished 9 points lower at 37.52 cents a pound on Tuesday.
At 1001 GMT, July soyoil was trading 21 points higher on e-CBOT at 37.73 cents a pound.
July crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 35 cents lower at $72.23 a barrel at 1001 GMT.
In the cash market, palm olein for June shipment offered at $800/ton while Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered unchanged at MYR2,560/ton.
Meanwhile, no trades were reported on CME's Group Inc.'s (CME) dollar-based CPO futures for September contract at 1007 GMT. The benchmark August rupiah-denominated CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange ended 0.2% lower at IDR6,750 a kilogram, with 151 lots traded. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons. The September contract ended 0.1% lower at IDR6,680/kg, with 122 lots done.
Open interest on the BMD was 68,662 lots, versus 68,982 lots Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
A total of 15,499 lots of CPO were traded versus 10,109 lots Tuesday.
The benchmark August contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR8 higher at MYR2,468 a metric ton.
Despite bearish market sentiment, prices were higher during afternoon trade, rising to an intraday high of MYR2,480/ton as speculative buying and higher soyoil during Asian trading hours lifted prices up.
Traders had expected a fall in futures prices after overnight declines in crude and soyoil market and since data from the government-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board aren't likely to be price-friendly.
The MPOB is scheduled to issue Malaysia's May palm oil production, export and stock data June 10.
Traders estimate Malaysia's end-May palm oil inventories to be little changed to a tad higher, between 1.62 million tons and 1.65 million tons due to higher CPO supply.
Growers and traders estimated May palm oil output rose 10% on month. Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. put May palm oil exports at 1.33 million tons and 1.32 million tons, respectively.
"Prices couldn't sustain at higher levels as palm oil demand has been tad a sluggish," said a senior trading executive from Kuala Lumpur.
Many among buyers are only making purchases to replenish supplies and no large deals have been reported in the market so far that could push prices higher, he said.
Purchases by buyers have been slow as palm olein, a key product used for food-making, is more expensive than soyoil in the cash market, a Singapore-based trading executive said.
July soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade finished 9 points lower at 37.52 cents a pound on Tuesday.
At 1001 GMT, July soyoil was trading 21 points higher on e-CBOT at 37.73 cents a pound.
July crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 35 cents lower at $72.23 a barrel at 1001 GMT.
In the cash market, palm olein for June shipment offered at $800/ton while Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered unchanged at MYR2,560/ton.
Meanwhile, no trades were reported on CME's Group Inc.'s (CME) dollar-based CPO futures for September contract at 1007 GMT. The benchmark August rupiah-denominated CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange ended 0.2% lower at IDR6,750 a kilogram, with 151 lots traded. One lot is equivalent to 10 tons. The September contract ended 0.1% lower at IDR6,680/kg, with 122 lots done.
Open interest on the BMD was 68,662 lots, versus 68,982 lots Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
A total of 15,499 lots of CPO were traded versus 10,109 lots Tuesday.
Closing BMD CPO futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT: Month Close Previous Change High Low Jun'10 2,535 2,533 Up 02 2,551 2,530 Jul'10 2,505 2,509 Down 04 2,521 2,496 Aug'10 2,468 2,460 Up 08 2,480 2,458 Sep'10 2,445 2,432 Up 13 2,457 2,432 -By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233; shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com
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