Weekly Crude Palm Oil Report 2 September 2012

Crude palm oil futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended the week lower due to profit taking and positions squaring activities ahead of the long weekend after the market rose sharply for the past two weeks.

The benchmark FCPO November contract declined RM50 or 1.63 per cent to close at RM3,019 per tonne on Friday from RM3,069 per tonne last Friday.

The trading range for the week was from RM2,978 to RM3,122.

Total volume traded for the week amounted to 135,727 contracts, up 24,498 contracts from the previous week.

The open interest as at Wednesday increased to 129,327 contracts from 123,958 contracts the previous Thursday.

Typhoon Bolaven hit China on Tuesday on a weaker basis in terms of winds and rains which did not bring much harm to the crop production in China.

However, the Tropical Storm Isaac in US was strengthened to Hurricane Isaac Category 1 brought massive rainfalls, strong winds and floods to the US Gulf Coast region over the week, shutting down most of the oil and natural gas drilling platforms and refineries in the area and stalling the local business activities in the region.

The Hurricane Isaac was sighted to move forward and would bring moderate to heavy rainfalls to most of the southern half of US over the weekend.

Some analysts commented the rainfalls came too late to revive the soybean crops in the southern areas but it did bring some relief to the drought stricken region.

However, the heavy rainfalls may also halt the harvesting progress which is on-going currently in those areas.
The weekly crop progress report released by USDA on Monday indicated the soybean crop condition slipped slightly where the soybean crop was reported 30 per cent in good to excellent condition, down from 31 per cent the previous week.

Cargo surveyor ITS released the palm oil export fi gures for the full month of August on Friday at 1,453,544 tonnes, a surge of 17.73 per cent from the same period last month.

Earlier, cargo surveyor SGS released the palm oil export fi gures for the period of August 1 to 25 on Monday at 1,051,541 tonnes, an increase of 6.56 per cent from the same period last month.

The Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke hinted on the possibility and the need of more quantitative easing programs during his speech in Jackson Hole on Friday given the current high unemployment and stagnation in the US labour market.

His remarks lifted the sentiment in the overnight US equities market.

Traders would also focus on the outcome of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy next Thursday to gauge the development of the eurozone debt crisis.

The US market will be closed on Monday celebrating the Labour Day.

Technical View
The benchmark November contract retraced this week after the sharp rally for the past two weeks as we had mentioned earlier.

The market covered the gap nicely and we expect the uptrend would start anytime soon.
Resistance would be pegged at RM3,193 and RM3,270 while support was set at RM2,973 and RM2,820.

Major fundamental news this coming week
Malaysian export data for the full month of August by SGS on September 3 and the Reuters’ poll on the August’s palm oil supply and demand.

Courtesy of OPF

Weekly Crude Palm Oil Report August 26 2012

Crude palm oil futures (FCPO) on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives soared this week due to the outlook of lower crop production in US and the anticipation of better demand for crude palm oil in the coming weeks.
The benchmark FCPO November contract jumped RM107 or 3.61 per cent to close at RM3,069 per tonne on Friday from RM2,962 per tonne last Friday.

The trading range for the week was from RM3,010 to RM3,100.

Total volume traded for the week amounted to 111,229 contracts, down 42,668 contracts from the previous week.

The open interest as at Thursday increased to 123,958 contracts from 115,338 contracts the previous Thursday.

According to the crop tour conducted by Pro Farmer this week, the US corn and soybean production was estimated to be lower than the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report due to the worst drought condition hitting the region in 56 years.

Pro Farmer pegged the US corn crop for 2012/13 at 10.478 billion bushels against 10.779 billion bushels in the latest USDA monthly report while soybean crop at 2.6 billion bushels versus 2.692 billion bushels in the government report.

Traders were also monitoring on the typhoon development in China coast where Typhoon Bolaven was expected to hit North East of China by the middle of next week.

Typhoon Bolaven might bring heavy rains and flooding to the country’s main producing areas of soybean and corn in which the impact might be potentially harm up to 20 per cent of the crops.

The weekly crop progress report released by USDA on Monday indicated the soybean crop condition further improved slightly where the soybean crop was reported 31 per cent in good to excellent condition, up from 30 per cent the previous week.

The latest weather forecast indicated heavy rains would fall in the Midwest over the weekend but the overall total precipitation remained below the average.

Cargo surveyor ITS released the palm oil export fi gures for the period of August 1 to August 20 on Wednesday at 809,814 tonnes, an increase of 5.96 per cent from the same period last month.

Traders need to monitor closely on the development of the eurozone debt crisis issue from now onwards as there would be lots of news flowing out in September.

One of the key issues would be the Germany’s Constitutional Court rules on the legality of the eurozone bailout fund which was scheduled on September 12.

Other than that, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 12 to September 13 would also be the limelight on the possible announcement of the implementation of the quantitative easing programmes.

The Malaysian market will be closed on Friday celebrating the National Day.
Technical View The benchmark november contract rose sharply this week following the broad gains in the US grain markets.

The break above RM3,000 this week has confirmed the double bottom formation.

However, the market has risen too fast leaving two gaps behind in the chart where there would be a possibility of the market to cover at least one of the gaps.

Nevertheless, the latest chart development indicated the market was set for bull run soon.

Resistance was be pegged at RM3,193 and RM3,270 while support was set at RM2,973 and RM2,820.
Major fundamental news this coming week Malaysian export data for August 1 to August 20 and August 1 to August 25 by SGS on August 27.

-Courtesy of OPF-

SELAMAT HARI RAYA AIDILFITRI 2012

To all Muslims around the globe...